Gauteng Smallholder December 2015-January 2016 | Page 13

Drought: STILL not the worst

We!ve had even drier early-season months ... try 2002!

S

outh Africa is in the grip
of a drought, and a
number of provinces
have been declared disaster
areas: this, by now, we all
know. What is interesting,
however, is that, on the East
Rand at least, this year's
rainfall from September to
November, while low, is by
no means the lowest it has
been in the past two
decades.
The driest three first months
of the rainy season that we
have recorded in Bredell was
in 2002, when only 65mm
fell. 2004 was a bit better,
with 101mm and this year, to
Nov 23 when we went to
press we had recorded
106mm. The long-range
forecasts for the last week of
November appeared hopeful
of further showers by month
end.
The average rainfall for the
first three months that we
have measured since 1999 is
192mm, and the wettest first
three months were in 2001
and again in 2012 when we
recorded 322mm.
So, while this season is dry
and below average, it is not
the worst we have experienced.
The problem is, however,
that many smallholders
cannot rely on their own
grazing to feed their livestock, their plots being too
small to sustain even their
small herds and flocks. As a
result they are forced to rely
on bought-in fodder and
feed; fodder which is grown
on extensive farms often
quite distant from Gauteng.
It's fine if Gauteng is enjoying
a dry summer so long as
these areas receive decent
rains. However, when the
fodder producing areas are in
the grip of a drought as they
are this year, smallholders
can expect feed scarcities
during next year, with

concomitant high prices.
What of the prognosis for the
rest of summer?
Weather pundits are
forecasting that we South
Africa only revert to average
rainfall patterns after March
next year, by which time it is
too late for good crops in the
summer rainfall regions.
In addition, it is likely that, in

Gauteng at least, we
will experience higher
than average temperatures during the period
to end-March.

Right: Rainfall in Bredell,
East Rand Sep-Nov,
1999-2015.
The average is 199mm

11
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2002
2004
2015
2010
2003
1999
2006
2011
2008
2014
2005
2009
2013
2000
2007
2001
2012

SEP
20
0
26
0
10
5
0
5
0
11
0
46
6
34
35
55
120

NEWS

OCT
28
19
21
15
86
11
29
94
66
63
19
60
117
120
182
144
103

NOV
17
82
59*
96
25
113
123
77
121
117
198
132
150
119
63
123
100

* Nov 2015 to 23rd November only

TOTAL
65
101
106
111
121
129
152
176
187
190
217
237
272
273
280
322
322