G20 Foundation Publications China 2016 | Page 48

ENERGY LONG-TERM POLICIES FOR THE RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION DR FATIH BIROL Executive Director, International Energy Agency 48 Almost one year ago, the world greeted the Paris Agreement with enthusiasm. Yet as the initial excitement began to settle, the question that remained was whether or not this event marked a true sea change in the energy transition. We have long said that predictable and stable policies can provide long- term price signals that attract fi nance. So, will the Paris Agreement spur the appropriate policies and investment necessary to keep us on track to a 2 degree scenario? Investment in low-carbon electricity is a crucial component of a successful climate strategy. Electricity is the single greatest contributor to global emissions, with electrifi cation and growth driving demand in emerging economies. The IEA’s annual Tracking Clean Energy Progress report concluded in 2016 that the deployment of the majority of low-carbon technologies will need to signifi cantly accelerate to put the global energy system on track for an impactful low-carbon transition. Yet what we are seeing lately is encouraging. Investment into renewable electricity was nearly three times higher than for fossil fuel generation in 2015. China reached a new high of nearly US$ 100 billion, making up 60% of its total generation investment, with wind investment for the fi rst time surpassing hydropower. Meanwhile, renewable investment in India increased to near US$ 10 billion, with strong underlying momentum where policy support and improving economics are driving an expansion of onshore wind and solar photovoltaics. While renewable investment in the European Union has trended down in recent years, off shore wind reached its highest level to date. Three broad trends are at work here. First, the spread and implementation of enabling policies to countries with good resources are supporting the cases for investment. This momentum was enhanced with climate pledges stemming from the 2015 Paris Agreement, providing further long-term decarbonisation signals. Second, cost defl ation and technology improvements mean that a dollar invested in renewables yields far more capacity and energy than it did fi ve years ago. Third, supportive fi nancing factors, such as availability of lower cost debt, are enhancing investment. However investment challenges persist. While Paris Agreement pledges underpin a new normal for renewable deployment,