TRADE & FINANCE 33
And those overall growth trends do not give much cause for optimism at the moment . Despite a modest economic recovery in 2013-4 , economic growth is expected to remain below trend over the foreseeable future . The G20 jobs gap in 2012 was about 55 million . The ILO estimates that the gap will continue to widen until 2018 , reaching 63 million that year .
“ Jobless growth ”
Africa have seen further increases in already high long-term unemployment rates . However , some declines were recorded in Brazil and the Russian Federation and to a lesser extent Turkey and , although from a high base , also in Germany .
The median value of long-term unemployment as a share of total unemployment had risen to 30.2 per cent by the first quarter of 2014 , up from 24.6 per cent at the end of 2007 . In several countries , the challenge of long-term unemployment , and unemployment more generally , is particularly acute among youth .
The next slide addresses one element of the quality of employment , that is the issue of informality .
Informal employment is high in emerging economies
Furthermore , the employment intensity of growth has also been weakened in many countries . This figure shows that even very high growth rates in China , India and Indonesia have not produced comparable growth in employment .
Except for Turkey , Mexico and Germany , all of the other G20 countries that did grow saw lower rates of job growth than economic growth .
In addition to the sheer size of the jobs gap , then , there are clearly specific employment problems facing G20 economies .
Long-term unemployment has grown in many countries
1 . Corresponds only to persons employed in the informal sector 2 . Six cities only
In a number of emerging G20 economies , the biggest challenge lies in moving the labour force out of low productivity , low wage informal employment and underemployment . This slide shows , disaggregated by gender , the high levels of informality in many emerging G20 countries . In addition , we have observed an emergence of informal working relationships even in the formal sector in some advanced G20 economies .
Coinciding with the sizeable jobs gap we looked at is a deterioration in job quality in a number of G20 countries , and here we look at the behaviour of real wage rates . Real wages have stagnated across many advanced G20 economies and even fallen in some .
Weak economic recovery has led to weak wage growth , especially in advanced economies
* Selected urban areas . Q3 2007-Q3 2013 for the Russian Federation ; and Q1 2008-Q1 2014 for South Africa
In over half of the G20 , the share of long-term unemployed has increased as a share of total unemployment , in some cases dramatically . These unemployed face daunting re-employment odds .
Particularly sharp increases took place in Spain as well as in the United States , and countries such as Italy and South