FUTURE TALENT November - January 2019/2020 | Page 64

T
TALKING HEADS
Don’t ignore your ‘helpful Cassandras’
W
e’ve all heard the
s to r i e s . T h e
multi-patent-
holding chemist
at Kodak who warned of the
digital revolution. The
experienced research and
development person at
Nokia who pointed out that
the bean counters had
t a ke n ove r a n d t h e
company couldn’t get new
products out the door
anymore. The scary-smart
top engineers at General
Electric who urged the
c o m p a ny to b et o n
renewable energy rather
than tying its fortunes to
fossil fuels.
It’s nearly always the case
that someone, somewhere,
saw a significant inflection
point coming and tried to
warn the ‘powers that be’ –
to little avail. Ignoring these
warnings imperils everyone.
And yet, it happens over and
over again. Let’s explore
why, and what you as a
leader might do about it.
In his influential book
about inflection points,
Only The Paranoid Survive,
Andy Grove called people
who see issues early
‘helpful Cassandras’ after
the Greek prophetess who
foresaw future calamities
but was not believed. In
your organisation, such
Cassandras are not typically
situated at headquarters
or found conveniently
hanging out in the business
lounge. They tend to be at
the ‘edges’; those places
in which the organisation
touches some element of
its environment.
They
could
be
technologists who have an
“aha!” moment at a technical
conference; salespeople
64 // Future Talent
who find that customers
aren’t responding to their
messages as they used to.
They could be field service
people who note that
your offerings are being
supplanted in customers’
operations by an alternative.
You may never cross paths
with these people or hear
the critical insights that
they possess.
Your Cassandras are
unlikely to be members
of your organisation’s
managerial tribe. They
a re of te n te c h n i c a l
experts, driven by data
(but not necessarily the
greatest communicators
or storytellers); they may
grow impatient when
other people don’t grasp
what is, to them, obvious
and be perfectly content
to state their point of view,
expecting you to take
appropriate action without
further activity on their part.
They may well be
respected but aren’t
necessarily considered to
be part of the ‘in’ crowd.
And heaven help their
message being heard if
they happen to be female
or otherwise part of an
under-represented group.
This, then, is the paradox:
the very people best able to
see the early warning signs
of change are often in the
worst position to help you
see them too.
What can you do?
G et yo u r s e l f o u t to
the edges where your
Cassandras reside. Attend
a technical conference
with them (even if you
don’t understand what’s
going on); go on a sales
or service visit. Give your
people the chance to share
Rita Gunther
McGrath
“You may never cross
paths with these people
or hear the critical
insights that they
possess”
what they see happening.
To make this easier, some
firms institute free-flowing
communication channels
t h a t d o n’ t d e p e n d
on hierarchy.
Next, if you do get a whiff
of something changing
that might be important,
fight the urge to dismiss or
downplay it. Ask, “is this the
first time this person has
raised an issue?” If it is, that’s
a more reliable resource
than a person who is always
seeing the sky falling.
Second, consider
whether this person
has an emotional stake
in their observation or
recommendation – they
are much more likely to see
what needs to be done than
those with a vested interest
in the status quo.
Finally, consider whether
what you are hearing
suggests that ingrained
assumptions about your
business may be changing.
If the answer is “yes”, you
may well be looking at
the seeds of a strategic
inflection point. The good
news is that the leading
indicators of a pending
inflection are almost always
here, today, somewhere.
The skill lies in learning to
accept their implications.
Rita Gunther McGrath is
professor of management
at the Columbia Business
School.