INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
The future for kerosene – delivering heat in a decarbonised world
THE 2019 UKPIA ‘ FUTURE VISION ’ MADE TWO FAIRLY UNEQUIVOCAL STATEMENTS ABOUT CESSATION OF SUPPLY OF HEATING OIL FOR PROPERTIES OFF THE GAS GRID IN ‘ THE 2020S ’. WITH THE RELEASE OF THE LATEST REPORT , ‘ TRANSITION , TRANSFORMATION , AND INNOVATION : OUR ROLE IN THE NET-ZERO CHALLENGE ’, AT THE END OF 2020 , WE SPEAK WITH STEPHEN MARCOS JONES , DIRECTOR GENERAL , UKPIA , TO GET AN UPDATED PERSPECTIVE ON THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE REPORTS FOR HEATING OIL AS WELL AS THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT LEGISLATION ON THE USE OF , AND DEMAND FOR , KEROSENE .
A consideration of scenarios “ The “ Future Vision ” report , published by the UK Petroleum Industry Association ( UKPIA ) in July 2019 , outlined a range of ways the downstream oil sector could contribute to the UK ’ s lowcarbon agenda . Since then , the UK Government ’ s ambition has accelerated towards faster decarbonisation , with the UK announcing a net zero target as well as the recent “ Energy White Paper ” alongside the “ Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution ” which have set out more details on how to reach the challenge of meeting net zero by 2050 .
“ The “ Future Vision ” considered scenario assessments from the Committee on Climate Change and others , which had meeting the Paris goals ( an 80 % carbon reduction ) as their outcome . In order to achieve that goal , the UK Government ’ s own Clean Growth Strategy expected the need to “ phase-out highcarbon fossil fuel heating for new and existing buildings … during the 2020s ” with all the scenarios we looked at concurring that use of “ liquid fuels for space heating [ would fall ] to very low levels in the 2020s ”.
While those scenarios are not UKPIA ’ s own , they are important as they have informed government policy such as the Future Homes Standard and Future Buildings Standard .
Liquid fuels can be low-carbon “ Since 2019 , the targets for decarbonisation have become even more ambitious , which might beg the question as to whether there is a role at all for downstream oil companies in the home heating sector . Of course , the answer is that there can and will be , if fuels are also given the opportunity and incentive to decarbonise .
“ The ‘ phasing out of high-carbon fossil fuel heating ’ in the Clean Growth Strategy is something we can agree with , but it is important not to conflate liquid fuels with high-carbon fuels , as liquids can be low-carbon . UKPIA believes that meeting net zero targets will only be possible if we employ a range of technologies that are available to us , right across the economy .
16 Fuel Oil News | March 2021
“ Decarbonisation of off-grid heating can be viewed through a similar lens to the decarbonisation of cars .
Both sectors are almost entirely reliant on fossil-derived oils today , but both can be served by electrification technologies that offer significant decarbonisation potential in future ( whether that be electric vehicles or electric heat pumps ). Given that proven , and increasingly affordable , technologies exist , we can understand why governments are turning to them .
The Energy White Paper strongly supports the role for heat pumps in particular , however it is worth remembering the many other technologies that can also offer genuine carbon reductions for heating , as well as the big role that the downstream sector could play in their development :
• Low carbon fuels – the most obvious replacement for fossil-derived fuels in off-grid heating is to replace them with non-fossil equivalents . The great advantage of low carbon liquid fuels is that they neither require expensive nor difficult upgrades of existing boilers and heaters , but they could offer very similar lifecycle emissions reductions to the lowest-carbon technologies . Whether increasing blends of biofuels , a long-term change to synthetic fuels or those from wastes , there are also many different ways that those fuels can be produced ( as we show more in our latest publication the “ Transition , Transformation , and Innovation ” report ).
• District heating with waste heat recovery – major industries like refineries can channel their unused heat into local networks without the need for ‘ new ’ heat generation , offering a better way to use energy that is already being produced in industries and feed it into local communities . There is government support for this new way of thinking that links up different parts of the country better and refineries also have the advantage of being able to find a market for what is otherwise wasted heat .
• Clean Hydrogen – which government hopes will be able to displace Natural Gas in the gas grid , and where the downstream oil sector , as the biggest producer and user of hydrogen in the UK , might have a large role to play in development of the UK ’ s future hydrogen market . Our sector is very experienced in handling hydrogen and can help share safety insights as well as potentially being the centre of hydrogen towns , which some have predicted .
“ These are just a few examples of technologies in the downstream oil sector that could deliver heat in a decarbonised world . Delivering decarbonisation ‘ system-wide ’ also means that we can efficiently use resources . For example , the fuel producer cannot produce only sustainable aviation fuels ( which all scenarios forecast strong demand for in 2050 ) so will need to find uses for the other low-carbon products that are also formed in that process . The decarbonisation of aviation can provide low carbon fuel solutions in heating and other areas and continue using existing infrastructure .
“ Today ’ s fuels benefit society by being so flexible ; we can produce them , transport and store them in so many different ways which is why they have become the dominant fuel source in modern society . Now that government has set the carbon emissions target for 2050 , the downstream sector can contribute in many ways to deliver future fuels that can meet those goals as well as helping the whole UK energy ecosystem decarbonise and grow too – we just need a policy framework that will help support this .”