ROUNDS |
pandemic . Using a CDC model to estimate COVID-19 ’ s impact on hepatitis B outcomes |
optimistic . Development efforts have been achieved in record time . There are over 300 |
with immunizations being disrupted , I found |
COVID-19 vaccine candidates , over 30 in clinical |
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that a 20 % decline would lead to more than |
trials and at least nine in phase 3 . Many of |
ROBERT D . ALLISON ( M . D ., ’ 06 ) |
700,000 excess hepatitis B infections and 120,000 additional related deaths in the Western |
these studies have shown neutralizing antibody and cell-mediated immune responses . The |
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November 2020 |
Pacific Region ’ s 2020 birth cohort . |
current but ever-changing general consensus |
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CDC Medical Officer , Global Immunization Division Faculty Associate , Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health |
So what do the pandemic ’ s next six months hold for us ? Before the summer , we predicted a spike |
is that a vaccine will be available by the end of the year . It ’ s unknown how long it will take to vaccinate a sufficient percentage of the |
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in fall and winter cases , consistent with low |
population and what the duration of immunity |
I |
n early 2020 I accepted a new
assignment with the CDC to support
the hepatitis B virus elimination
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population immunity and the seasonal pattern of other beta-coronaviruses . What ’ s less clear is whether being infected with both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 will increase the severity of |
will be . It ’ s encouraging that federal , state and local public health have been urgently ramping up deployment strategies and capacity . |
program in the WHO Western Pacific |
outcomes . The safest bet is for everyone to get |
We haven ’ t faced a public health emergency |
Region ., based in Manila . COVID-19 cases |
their flu shots as soon as possible . |
of this magnitude for over 100 years . We owe |
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spiked in the U . S . two weeks before my move |
The best way to prevent transmission will |
a tremendous debt of gratitude to the front- |
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and all CDC travel was put on indefinite hold . |
continue to be use of face coverings , social |
line doctors , nurses , first responders and their |
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I was reassigned to COVID-19 response where |
distancing and good hand hygiene – likely until |
families for their herculean efforts and sacrifices . |
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my role under the Chief Medical Officer was to |
at least mid-2021 . But consider : face coverings |
They will be strained to their limits again as we |
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produce near real-time , evidence-based reviews |
are about 50 % effective at blocking large- |
face spikes in the fall and winter . To win this we |
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and recommendations for the COVID-19 |
particle aerosols carrying a virus . They protect |
need to support each other , strongly advocate |
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incident command and CDC leadership . |
other people from infected symptomatic and |
for sufficient resources and ensure decisions are |
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My assignments included tackling some of |
asymptomatic wearers , and they offer some |
evidence-based and that public health responses |
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the most charged questions at that time . For |
protection for a person wearing the mask . This |
are appropriate and effective . |
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instance , would SARS-CoV-2 transmission |
underscores the importance of social distancing : |
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decline in the warmer summer months allowing |
maintaining a minimum six-foot buffer , but as |
Editor ’ s note : The informed opinions expressed here |
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a safe phased reopening ? Should we expect |
far away as possible . We know a lot more now |
are solely those of Dr . Allison , who relied on the |
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a spike in the colder fall and winter months ? |
about small-particle airborne transmission – that |
best available evidence at the time of FSU MED ’ s |
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Are new onset loss of smell and / or taste |
these particles travel much farther than six feet . |
publication . His opinion is consistent with public |
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a marker ( s ) for SARS-CoV-2 infection ? Is |
While the degree of contribution of airborne |
statements and testimony from senior scientists and |
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hydroxychloroquine an effective treatment ? |
transmission to infection is still unclear , the best |
public-health officials . |
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And does use of cloth facial coverings by |
bet is to maintain the greatest separation possible , |
Dr . Allison was a member of the College of |
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laypeople slow viral spread ? |
particularly in enclosed spaces where ventilation is |
Medicine ’ s inaugural class but graduated with the Class |
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As the impact of COVID-19 on delivery |
not optimal . |
of 2006 after taking a year off from medical school |
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of primary and preventive care became |
to train at the NIH . His mentor there , Harvey Alter , |
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more evident , my role shifted to helping |
Finally , when are we going to get a safe |
was recently awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology |
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WHO address notable declines in childhood |
and effective vaccine ? How long will it take |
or Medicine in October for his role in discovering the |
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immunization coverage , and in particular , |
to vaccinate enough people to attain herd |
hepatitis C virus . Allison served as a post-doc under |
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to hepatitis B vaccine delivery . Childhood |
immunity ( generally thought to require 60- |
Alter ( 2006-08 ) and took over as the chief scientist in |
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hepatitis B vaccinations in the U . S . and globally |
80 % of the population )? And how long will |
his NIH lab in 2016 . |
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have declined by 20 % or more during the |
immunity last ? I believe we can be cautiously |
FSUMED |
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