The Challenge
Chainsaws, bulldozers, and forest-clearing fires have already destroyed approximately 18 % of the Amazon rainforest. Once cleared of rainforest, those acres are often used for cattle ranching or soy farming. The local devastation to the land is significant and long lasting; once deforested, these acres are rarely able to be restored as rainforest due to soil erosion and nutrient loss.
The destruction may happen on a local scale, one cattle ranch or soy farm at a time. But, left unchecked, this loss of tree cover will eventually disrupt the Amazon’ s entire water cycle, triggering far-reaching and long-term consequences throughout the Amazon and around the world.
It starts with the Atlantic Ocean, where warm air pulls humidity up into the atmosphere, forming clouds. When those clouds move over land, they release that moisture as rain. Much of this moisture is absorbed by trees and other plants, which then release water vapor back into the air through the transpiration process. The quantity of trees and vegetation is so great within the Amazon— and the amount of moisture released by them is so substantial— that the plants recharge the clouds for additional rainfall. The result is an atmospheric river that repeatedly rains, refuels, and rains again as it travels westward from the Atlantic coast.
If this cycle were to be broken, the Amazon would change dramatically and likely permanently. Many scientists agree much or all of the region would irreversibly transition into something like a savanna, with sparser tree cover, much less frequent rainfall, and a significantly drier climate. The loss of biodiversity would be staggering.
The consequences of an Amazon savanna would not stay contained within its borders; the entire world would quite literally feel the effects. The Amazon rainforest safeguards an immense amount of CO 2 equivalents— equal to roughly three times the world’ s current annual emissions— and much of this could be released into the atmosphere, accelerating climate change at an alarming rate. Worsening droughts and wildfires, stronger and more frequent storms and hurricanes, rising sea levels, and longer and more intense allergy seasons are just a few of the impacts we would feel with the loss of the Amazon rainforest.
Rainforest Trust board member Tom Lovejoy( 1941-2021) predicted this would be the inevitable result if deforestation took too much of the Amazon’ s tree cover. He called this point of change a tipping point— the irreversible moment when the Amazon rainforest would no longer be able to support itself and would“ tip over” to become something vastly different. He made his prediction in 2007, and studies since then indicate he was right.
Current science suggests we are dangerously close to this irreversible tipping point with deforestation in much of the Amazon. Already, more than 75 % of the forest has lost resilience, and requires increasing amounts of time to recover from drought, fire, and other stressors. One recent study suggests that almost half of the Amazon rainforest could reach the point of transition to savanna by 2050 if deforestation is not halted. Some worry the process will start even sooner.
5