What ’ s in Store for 2023 and Beyond ?
WORDS BY REDBOOK
Reflecting upon 2022 many of the pain points that the industry endured over the prior 18 months continued , however it doesn ’ t necessarily mean that all brands shared similar fates . As we sit here in the sunset of 2022 , we ’ re watching a total industry volume that will likely eclipse the pre-pandemic 2019 figure of just over 1.062m new vehicle registrations . Despite increasing pressures on household living costs , this volume growth is being driven by the private sector as most OEMs hastily prioritise fulfilment of backorders .
Early in the pandemic , as an industry we witnessed unprecedented used car devaluation . Few could predict what would happen next , nor could we foresee increases in used car prices , driven by the unique demand and supply shocks that historically have never happened simultaneously .
Fast forward 2 years and with the benefit of deep insights derived from not just traditional wholesale channels but unique proprietary private and dealer data courtesy of Carsales . com . au , Redbook ’ s leading indicators are pointing towards some normalisation by way of ; average days-to-sell online back to similar levels seen prepandemic ; dealer stock levels trending upwards and the average gap between listing price and delisting price online being the greatest margin since early 2020 .
These , amongst many other reference points imply sellers are reluctant to “ meet the market ” price wise and are hanging onto their cars for longer , ultimately contributing to the buildup of stock in the used car space .
Recent commentary alluding to a semi-conductor “ famine-to-feast ” scenario are also signs that OEMs could quickly reverse constrained
10 ISSUE 38 DECEMBER 2022 / WWW . AFMA . ORG . AU