And the winner is...
The awards season is upon us and each year, actors, writers, directors, animators, and every professional in the filmmaking industry hold their breath awaiting the coveted words leading up to the announcement of the Oscar winners. While the Screen Actors Guild and Independent Spirit Awards are quite an honor, it is the little Gold Statue of a bald man that is still the most sought after in the movie industry. As the winners of the Golden Globes made their passionate speeches that more than hinted at their fears for the future of Hollywood, foreigners, and the press, there is also the question, “Is there a correlation between the winners of the Golden Globes and Oscar?”
The answer is yes. In the last 4 years, more than 50% of the Golden Globe winners in major categories (Best Actor/Actress, Director, Picture, Supporting Actor/Actress) also won an Oscar in that category. In 2016, Brie Larson, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu had two different statues to display on their mantle. In 2015, Julianne Moore, Eddie Redmayne, J.K. Simmons, and Patricia Arquette, all possess two different statues as well. And in 2014, 5 out of 6 categories were duplicated on Oscar Night. Now in 2016, “La La Land” captured a record 7 Golden Globe Awards. Will it also sweep Oscar? Statistically speaking, the chances are greater than a coin toss that it will.
How can this happen? The voters in each organization are completely different. The voting body of the Golden Globes comprises less than 100 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) compared to the 6000 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (Oscar) who are in the film industry, most based in the U.S. The final voting of the members of the Academy doesn’t take place until after the Golden Globes, so perhaps they are swayed by the intensely emotional statements of the winners. If that’s the case, Viola Davis is a sure-fire winner of “Best Supporting Actress.”
While the nominations have yet to be announced for Oscar, the rowdy drinking fest of the Golden Globes gives us insight not only into the nominations, but also the winners of the Academy. If the trend and math holds true, expect to see Damien Chazelle receive “Best Director” for “La La Land” and the rest of the team receive their respective accolades for this inventive throw-back to Old-Time Hollywood musicals. But will last year’s boycott of the 2016 Academy Awards with #OscarSoWhite influence this year’s decision and buck the trend? The films are out there (“Loving,” “Moonlight,” “Hidden Figures,” “Fences”) and the voting body make-up has changed in the last year in an attempt to be more representative of our country. The films and talent are there too as we saw Viola Davis win her Golden Globe and “Moonlight” take home a statute as well. The Golden Globes recognized diversity so perhaps Oscar will too.
Now that you have the inside track to the Academy Award winners, is it even necessary to watch the Oscars on Sunday, February 24th? Of course! The styles on the red carpet and the comedic talent of Jimmy Kimmel can’t be missed. And who knows, there might even be a few surprises on Oscar nomination day (Tuesday, January 24). Until then, my money’s on the winners of the Golden Globes.
By Pamela Powell