EconXchange Sets the Tone for a Pivotal Year in Denver Housing
At EconXchange last month, nearly 500 members gathered for an amazing day of networking and economic forecasting, which offered a blunt outlook as we enter 2026. After a morning of face to face meetings between sponsors and owner / operators, the afternoon featured four engaging speakers and a panel of experts to provide their take on the state of the industry in Colorado.
Jay Denton of Radix kicked off the conference by stressing that the challenge has shifted from supply alone to both demand and job growth. National job gains slowed to 525,000 last year, while Denver added just 600 jobs even as 6,000 – 8,000 new multifamily units and additional single-family homes entered the market. With occupancy declining and rent growth under pressure, Denton urged attendees to track three signals: jobs per unit, stabilizing occupancy before rent recovery, and Class A performance as the leading indicator. The message for 2025 was clear that it will be a grind, but disciplined operators can position for a stronger 2026.
Egon Terplan, former senior advisor in the California Governor’ s Office and longtime San Francisco landlord, offered both a warning and a roadmap drawn from California’ s long list of negative housing legislation, including rent control. He explained that value is created at the regional scale through long-term investments in jobs, transit, housing, and innovation, but failure to manage growth can lead to affordability crises and political backlash. Egon challenged Denver to plan for quality jobs first, strengthen walkability and activity centers, and embrace scenario planning amid the uncertainty driven by AI, climate change, and shifting demographics.
State Demographer Kate Watkins added that Colorado’ s population outlook is slowing due to lower fertility, more deaths, and constrained migration tied largely to housing affordability. With natural population decline projected by 2047 and long-term growth slowing to 0.4 % annually by 2060, migration, and the housing conditions that support it, will be essential to the state’ s future.
In his data-driven market update, Teo Nicolais pushed back on crisis narratives. While costs like insurance and consumer goods having surged, Denver’ s rents have fallen, averaging $ 1,754, down nearly 5 % year over year, with vacancy at a 16-year high of 7.6 %. The primary driver is oversupply. More than 21,000 units were delivered in 2024 alone, heavily concentrated in transitoriented, one- and two-bedroom product. Still, with construction and permitting slowing sharply, Teo forecasted tightening conditions and renewed rent growth by 2026.
A panel of multifamily owners and operators closed out the conference. Sharon George, Brian Wynne and Darren Everett, alongside moderator Amie Robertshaw, echoed the cautious optimism presented all afternoon. While legislative and regulatory pressures are increasing costs and complexity, the panelists remain bullish on Denver’ s long-term fundamentals. Many emphasized a return to operational basics and noted strong institutional interest in acquisitions, suggesting the next 12 – 18 months could present one of the best buying opportunities in a decade as the market works through its reset.
EconXchange couldn’ t have happened without conference chairs LaSarha Swanson and Adam Berger, as well as all of our sponsors!
TEO NICOLAIS
KATE WATKINS
EGON TERPLAN
BRIAN WYNNE, DARREN EVERETT, SHARON GEORGE, AMIE ROBERTSHAW JAY DENTON www. aamdhq. org TRENDS FEBRUARY 2026 | 31