The Federation of Euro-Asian Stock Exchanges
Syrian Arab Republic
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There are no reliable data for Syria’s GDP. As a result of the destruction of the economy, unemployment (estimated at 50 percent), and mass emigration, it is likely that in real terms, GDP in 2020 was about 40 percent of Syria's estimated $60 billion GDP in 2010, the year before the war began (in 2010 prices), when growth was 3 percent. The World Bank estimated that Syria lost $300 billion in GDP in 2011-2018, under a theoretical assumption that barring the war, annual growth would have been 5.3 percent. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts that Syrian GDP will also shrink in 2021 in real terms as a result of a drop in real private consumption.
The damage to industry and agriculture during the civil war exacerbated Syria's dependence on imports. A shortage of foreign currency and the weakness of the Syrian currency, however, detracted from the regime's ability to finance imports, including of food products. With the COVID-19 crisis rampant, remittances by Syrians living abroad were also affected by the resulting economic crises in the countries employing them. It is estimated that before the pandemic, Syrian workers in Saudi Arabia sent $500 million a year to their families, and Syrian workers in Lebanon sent an additional $250 million a year.
Since June 2020, the official exchange rate has been 1,256 Syrian pounds (SYP) to the US dollar, compared with 513 SYP to the dollar on May 1, 2020, 214 SYP to the dollar on August 1, 2016, and 47 SYP to the dollar on January 1, 2011 (Investing.com, March 2021). On the black market, the exchange rate reached 4,000 SYP to the dollar in March 2021, compared with 700 SYP to the dollar a year ago. A new 5,000-pound bill went into circulation in January 2021, following the introduction of a 2,000-pound bill in 2017. The UN World Food Program (WFP) estimates that prices of basic foodstuffs are currently 29 times what they were before the war (in nominal terms). These figures clearly reflect a drop in the value of the Syrian currency and the deterioration of the Syrian economy.
Economic Outlook