The medium-term economic outlook remains challenging. The baseline assumption for the medium-term rests on continued oil exports of around 500 thousand barrels per day on average in 2019/20 and the following years. In the course of the next two years (2020/21 to 2021/22) the economy is expected to grow at 0.5 percent annually, from a considerably smaller base. Inflationary pressures are expected to moderate but annual inflation is expected to remain above 20 percent which is considerably higher than the country’s single digit inflation during 2016-17 and relative to other countries in the region.
In the coming years, the effect of the recent large exchange rate depreciation could allow the country’s goods and services to become more competitive regionally and help close the expected current account deficit gradually.
The fiscal deficit is projected to further widen in the next two years due to the legacy of the 2018-19 oil shock pushing government expenditures such as social protection measures upwards at the same time as receiving lower oil income and tax revenues.
Political and economic uncertainty makes it difficult to project future poverty trends. However, a sharp decline in real GDP per capita and double-digit inflation are expected to have a strong negative impact on poverty rates through different channels, including the labor market, increasing costs of living and a further erosion of the real value of cash transfers. Future poverty rates will also depend on the government’s public policy response. Any increases in the value of cash transfers, possibly along with introducing targeting mechanisms, could
help the poor and vulnerable population cope with the social-economic shocks, but fiscal constraints may limit the scope for significant response.
Corporate Action
Iranian companies are required to payout at least 10% of their net profits each year. The listed companies should hold their AGM until 4 months after the end of each annual year. Any corporate action is reported on www.codal.ir for investors.
Islamic Republic of Iran
Federation of Euro-Asian Stock Exchanges
After the lifting of the nuclear sanctions (2016), Iran's economy laid in growth path. Oil exports increased. Foreign investors started returning to Iran. The exchange rate fluctuations declined and the inflation rate fell sharply. In sum, Iran's economy experienced a positive growth. With regard to the investment growth (domestic and foreign), the increase in foreign trade and the improvement of Iran's political relations with the rest of the world, we expect that the future outlook of the country to be improved. Even some international entities (such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund) have approved the proper outlook of Iran's economy.
Undoubtedly, the existence of a high quality human capital, sufficient foreign investment and the access to cheap energy sources will make Iran as one of the most powerful countries in the region.
Iran's economy laid in growth path. The exchange rate fluctuations declined and the inflation rate fell sharply.
Economic Development and Outlook
56
Download data