Republic of Belarus
Federation of Euro-Asian Stock Exchanges
Economic Development and Outlook
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GDP growth fell to a three-year low in 2019, against the backdrop of a challenging external environment, while available data points to a marked downturn at the outset of this year. In January, economic activity contracted for the first time in nearly three years, as industrial output shrank at the sharpest rate in over four years amid faltering manufacturing and mining activity. Moreover, growth momentum in both the agricultural and retail sectors softened slightly in the opening month of the year. The downturn likely carried over into February–March as the global coronavirus outbreak bodes ill for the country’s external sector. In other news, Russia rejected Belarus’s pleas to provide it with cheaper oil supplies, likely using it as leverage to pressurize Belarus to join a full-blown political union.
Growth is seen strengthening this year as the external sector is expected to recover from last year’s downturn. That said, slowing global growth amid the coronavirus outbreak could derail the acceleration. Meanwhile, domestic demand should stay subdued: Faltering wage growth will likely weigh on consumer demand while downbeat sentiment is set to curb investment activity. FocusEconomics analysts forecast growth of 1.4% in 2020, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2021.
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