Republic of Belarus
Country Facts
Federation of Euro-Asian Stock Exchanges
Capital Market Information
The main purpose of BCSE is to promote the formation of fully organized financial market that meets its members’ needs.
Economic Development and Outlook
Economic Development and Outlook
18
The modest cyclical expansion of the economic activity in 2017 has ended a two-year long recession.
Real GDP grew two percent in the first ten months of 2017, in sharp contrast to the 2.8 percent decline y/y in the same period a year ago. A gradual increase in commodity prices boosted exports and supported a moderate increase in domestic business activity, especially in industry, where output increased by 6.3 percent y/y (vs. 1.5 percent decline a year ago). The services sector is also expanding - wholesale, retail trade and transportation growing by 2.4, 2.8 and 5.5 percent y/y, respectively - supported by recovery in industry and a modest increase in household consumption.
Authorities have introduced monetary easing measures as inflation pressures stabilize. The tight monetary and fiscal policies of previous years helped to reduce inflation to a single digit (reaching just 5.3 percent y/y in October 2017), the lowest rate in two decades. Against the background of lower inflation, the National
Bank has been cutting its benchmark rate almost monthly from 17 percent to 11 percent, resulting in a twofold reduction in nominal lending rates in national currency.
Despite government’s budget surplus, public debt levels continue to grow. Consolidated government revenues recorded modest real growth due to robust VAT, excise and corporate income taxes revenues. To meet public debt obligations, consolidated government budget expenditures were cut - mainly subsidies and transfers - to generate the budget surplus of 4.1 percent of GDP(excluding quasi-fiscal expenses, such as recapitalization of state-owned banks and enterprises), used to repay public debt.
Pressures on external accounts remain despite sizable external financing received this year. In January - September 2017, exports of goods went up by 21 percent (in US$ terms), due to the boost in commodity exports (both in value and US$ terms), and an increase in sales of investment goods.
Click here to read the full economic outlook prepared by the
World Bank.