FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES
ANNUAL REPORT JUNE 2013
BELGRADE STOCK EXCHANGE
Albeit the recovery made, estimated 2013
unemployment rate of over 24% still remains a
major social concern and together with large
fiscal deficit and public debt constitute key
vulnerabilities, which joined together with low
foreign direct investments, decline in bank
lending activity, growth of corporate non-
performing loans pose significant challenges
and undermine overall Serbia’s growth potential.
Consumption declined by 1,2% in 2013.
Year-on-year inflation in 2013 saw a downward
trend attributable to restrictive monetary policy
measures, low domestic demand, lower costs
of raw materials in food production, and the
relative stability of the foreign exchange market.
In order to unlock growth potentials capital
markets of Western Balkans and specially
Serbian capital market require new approach to
the role of capital market. Further development
of capital markets of Western Balkans
remains limited by extremely low liquidity
and fragmentation. Harmonization of legal
framework also add to the barrier preventing big
players from coming and joining the game in
this region.
In order to reduce external and domestic
vulnerabilities a comprehensive package
of structural reforms and ambitious fiscal
consolidation are urgent to prevent further
decline and unlock Serbia’s growth potential.
Immediate implementation of these measures
remain crucial to tackle poverty issues and other
challenges.
Key macroeconomic indicators 2013*
2005
5,4
2006
3,6
2007
5,4
2008
3,8
2009
-3,5
2010
1,0
2011
1,6
2012
-1,5
Q1
2013
3,0
Q2
2013
0,6
Q3
2013
3,7
Oct
2013
Nov
2013
Real GDP growth (in %) 1)
Consumer prices (in %, relative to the same month
17,7
6,6
11,0
8,6
6,6
10,3
7,0
12,2
11,2
9,8
4,9
2,2
1,6
a year earlier) 2)
NBS foreign exchange reserves (in EUR million)
4.921 9.020 9.634 8.162 10.602 10.002 12.058 10.914 11.844 10.673 10.444 10.298 10.362
Exports (in EUR million) 3)8)
5.329 6.948 8.687 10.157 8.478 10.070 11.472 11.913 2.934 3.511 4.036 1.355 1.282
- growth rate in % compared to a year earlier
19,1
30,4
25,0
16,9
-16,5
18,8
13,9
3,8
17,1
17,3
31,9
22,4
17,3
-9.612 -11.970 -16.016 -18.843 -13.404 -14.643 -16.627 -17.211 -4.077 -4.443 -4.638 -1.655 -1.560
Imports (in EUR million) 3)8)
- growth rate in % compared to a year earlier
0,7
24,5
33,8
17,6
-28,9
9,2
13,6
3,5
0,9
3,0
9,9
6,3
8,0
Current account balance 4)8)
(in EUR million)
-1.778 -2.356 -5.053 -7.054 -1.910 -1.887 -2.870 -3.155
-651
-296 -166 -113
-54
as % of GDP
-8,8
-10,1
-17,7
-21,6
-6,6
-6,7
-9,1
-10,5
-8,9
-3,8
-2,0
20,8
20,9
18,1
13,6
16,1
19,2
23,0
23,9
24,1
20,1
Unemployment according to the Survey (in %) 5)
Wages (average for the period, in EUR)
204,0 274,8 350,3 369,6 330,9 323,6 362,9 363,9 370,8 394,8 384,5 382,6 386,9
0,7
-1,7
-1,1
-1,9
-3,3
-3,5
-4,1
-5,7
-6,2
-5,3
-5,6
RS budget deficit/surplus (in % of GDP) 6)
Consolidated fiscal result (in % of GDP)
1,1
-1,5
-1,9
-2,6
-4,5
-4,7
-4,9
-6,5
-4,7
-4,9
-6,1
52,2
37,7
31,5
29,2
34,7
44,5
48,2
60,0
63,3
61,9
61,7
62,1
62,2
RS public debt, (external + internal, in % of GDP) 6)7)
RSD/USD exchange rate (average, in the period)
66,87 67,03 58,39 55,76 67,47 77,91 73,34 88,12 84,61 85,90 86,20 83,74 84,47
RSD/USD exchange rate (end of period)
72,22 59,98 53,73 62,90 66,73 79,28 80,87 86,18 87,43 87,41 84,89 83,20 83,73
RSD/EUR exchange rate (average, in the period)
82,99 84,11 79,96 81,44 93,95 103,04 101,95 113,13 111,70 112,15 114,18 114,19 114,06
RSD/EUR exchange rate (end of period)
85,50 79,00 79,24 88,60 95,89 105,50 104,64 113,72 111,96 114,17 114,60 114,01 114,64
MEMORANDUM:
GDP (in EUR million)
20.306 23.305 28.468 32.668 28.952 27.968 31.472 29.601 7.353 7.791 8.175
*source the National Bank of Serbia www.nbs.rs
1) At constant prices of previous year.
2) Retail prices until 2006.
3) Trade with Montenegro is registered within relevant
transactions as of 2003.
4) In accordance with BPM 5, a portion of estimated
remittances was transferred from the financial account
to the current account.
5) Source: Labour Force Survey, Statistical Office.
6) Source: MoF for public debt and NBS for estimated
GDP.
7) Gouverment securities at nominal value.
8) As of 1 January 2010, the Statistical Office, according
to UN recommendations, applies the general trade
system which is a broader concept and includes all
goods entering/exiting the country’s economic territory,
apart from goods in transit. The Statistical Office
Key Information Contacts
National Bank of Serbia www.nbs.rs
Securities and Exchange Commission www.sec.gov.rs
Central Securities Depository and Clearing House www.crhov.rs
Ministry of Economy and Regional Development www.mfp.gov.rs/?change_lang=en
CONTACT INFORMATION
Contact Name Ms. Marija Babic
PAGE 32
E-mail [email protected]
Website www.belex.co.rs
published comparable data for 2007, 2008 and 2009.
Previous years are disseminated under a special trade
system.
9) NBS estimate.