FEAS Yearbook FEAS Yearbook 2013 | Page 80

FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES ANNUAL REPORT JUNE 2013 SARAJEVO STOCK EXCHANGE accession. It also prevented completion of SBA reviews since October 2010; the SBA expired in July 2012, with only ⅓ of the approved amount disbursed. The new Council of Ministers that was confirmed in February 2012 has vowed to move expeditiously on EU issues. Cognizant of the risks emanating from the present uncertain global and regional economic environment, the authorities have put together a comprehensive program for which they are requesting Fund support. 3. The slow post-2009 economic recovery is losing momentum. Following the 2009 recession, BiH’s economy grew at a moderate pace in 2010-11. However, the pickup in economic activity did not spread from export-oriented industries to the wider banks. By March 2012, foreign parent banks had reduced their overall exposure to BiH by around 13 percent relative to the end-2008 benchmark (while the decline in exposure to banks was somewhat more pronounced), with most of the decline (10 percentage points) experienced by end-2010. Reserves came under renewed pressure earlier this year, mainly due to some banks’ and corporates’ repatriation of profits, and banks’ reduced demand for foreign funding. Positive momentum since the re-engagement with the Fund in program discussions contributed to a pickup in reserves in recent weeks. economy. Domestic demand has been held back by stagnant wages and employment, and slow credit growth. Following steep declines in 2009-10, domestic investment has recovered some ground. Latest high frequency indicators point to a marked slowdown of economic activity amid falling external demand. Headline inflation has declined despite high world oil and food prices, and increases in utility prices and tobacco excises. Core inflation has remained below 1 percent, reflecting the softness of domestic demand. 5. The banking system has remained relatively stable. The sector as a whole returned to profitability and maintained its capital adequacy through capital injections and profit retention (Table 11). Aggregate capital adequacy has remained above the minimum requirement, and top-down stress tests conducted by the authorities using end- March 2012 bank-by-bank regulatory data did not reveal significant weaknesses. However, nonperforming loans (NPLs) have remained at low double digits—12.6 percent for the banking sector as a whole as of June 2012. Finally, provisioning at 67 percent of nonperforming assets at end-June 2012 is in line with the regional average. 4. The current account deficit has started to narrow and official foreign exchange reserves have been volatile in recent months. The surge in imports during 2010-11 outpaced the recovery in exports, thus leading to a widening in the current account deficit to 8¾ percent of GDP in 2011. However, weak domestic demand this year led to a narrowing in the current account deficit in the first quarter of 2012 to 8 percent of GDP on an annualized basis. Official foreign exchange reserves remained broadly stable during 2011 despite some repatriation of funds by foreign parent 6. Fiscal consolidation has continued but the composition of expenditure has not improved. The overall fiscal deficit in 2010-11 stayed within the targets of the 2009 SBA. In 2011, consolidation was dictated by the lack of foreign financing for the Entities and by the temporary financing rules—that limit spending in the absence of an adopted budget—for the Institutions of BiH.2 Entities increasingly relied on domestic financing to meet their funding needs. However, the reduction in spending on public wages and war-related benefits as a CONTACT INFORMATION Contact Name Mr. Dino Bojic PAGE 78 E-mail [email protected] Website www.sase.ba share of GDP was slower than programmed.34 Nevertheless, war-related benefits and the average public wage grew slower than inflation in 2008-11, which is a significant departure from past trends. Overruns on wages and war-related benefits were partially offset by cuts in other current spending and under execution of the capital budget. 7. Structural reforms have stalled since the run-up to the October 2010 elections. The reform of war-related benefits is well behind the schedule envisioned under the World Bank’s Development Policy Loan (DPL) in both Entities. The finances of the Entity Health Funds continue to be under pressure due to the high cost of health care for the growing number of unemployed and pensioners. Delays in pension reform in the Federation, coupled with the growing number of veterans qualifying for pensions under special conditions, have increased the cost of subsidies for veteran pensions. Finally, little progress has been made on improving the business environment and BiH continues to rank low among its regional peers in both the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business and the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness rankings. Source IMF