FEAS Yearbook FEAS Yearbook 2013 | Page 72

FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES ANNUAL REPORT JUNE 2013 MONTENEGRO STOCK EXCHANGE CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK After record revenues, number of concluded transactions and the amount of market capitalization, the Montenegrin capital market, in the period after the investment boom from 2007, shows negative trends in terms of the market liquidity. That the market is subject to a period of stagnation and high reluctance of investors can also be concluded by observing the movement of the index in the last three years. The main factor that led to significantly worse results is the poor macroeconomic situation, both in Montenegro and beyond, leaving effects, primarily in terms of less money available for investment in the retail sector and among institutional investors. In addition, the Montenegrin capital market should still be seen as an “emerging market”, usually seen as risky, which leads to avoidance in the times of recession, due to the reluctance of investors seeking safe yields. According to credit agencies’ estimates, Montenegro currently has the following credit ratings: • Ba3 (with stable outlook) - by credit agency Moody’s (confirmed in May 2012). • BB- (with stable outlook) - by credit agency Standard and Poor’s confirmed in June 2012). Bad macroeconomic situation in Montenegro is caused largely by external economic factors and the influence of global economic crisis. The main characteristics of the current macroeconomic situation in Montenegro are: slowing economic growth (expressed by a significant drop in GDP) and increase in the level of tax and other debts in the economy, resulting in a significant increase in the level of government debt in relation to the GDP level. The current macroeconomic situation is also characterized by stagnation in credit activities of the banking sector which is directly caused by large amounts of bad loans (approved primarily in the period of investment boom). Incentives for improving the macroeconomic environment and the overall situation can be expected with the completion of announced major infrastructure projects in the sector of providing services. The start of official negotiations on accession to the European Union presents a significant step in terms of achieving macroeconomic stability (through the provision of better sources of financing and the government’s debt consolidation) and through the harmonization and implementation of European legislation, which is a significant argument in the process of attracting foreign investors and fostering further growth through the realization of foreign direct investments. Key Information Contacts Securities Commission of Montenegro www.scmn.me Central Depository Agency www.cda.me Central Bank of Montenegro www.cb-mn.org Ministry of Finance www.mf.gov.me Montenegro Statistical Office www.monstat.org CONTACT INFORMATION Contact Name Ms. Suzana Drincic PAGE 70 E-mail [email protected] Website www.mnse.me The real growth rate of GDP in the first quarter of 2012 compared with the same period in 2011 was negative, i.e. it amounted -2.4%, while the second quarter indicates the real growth rate 0.3%. (Source: Central Bank of Montenegro, Ministry of Finance of Montenegro, Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat) According to the report “Economic Freedom of the World” published by the Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal, Montenegro’s economic freedom score is 62.6, making its economy the 70th freest in the 2013 index. Its score is essentially the same as last year, with notable gains in the control of public spending, business freedom, and freedom from corruption balanced by declines in labor freedom, monetary freedom, and trade freedom. Montenegro ranks 33rd out of 43 countries in the Europe region, and its overall score is above the world average.