Food sales Indonesia 2017f – 2021f (IDR billion)
2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
Food 2,739,374.9 3,027,730.5 3,362,367.0 3,734,075.6 4,137,127.6
% growth y-o-y 9.3 10.5 11.1 11.1 10.8
Bread, rice and cereals 745,981.9 824,436.6 % growth y-o-y 9.2 10.5 11.1 11.1 10.8
Pasta products 51,650 ,9 34.7 56,9 14,0 75.7 % growth y-o-y 8.9 10.2 10.7 10.8 10.6
Baked goods 46,916,488.5 49,842,0 96.7 % growth y-o-y 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.3
Meat and poultry 158,572,177.5 176,080,198.4 196,443,668.4 219,102,194.7 243,705,838.5
% growth y-o-y 9.7 11 11.6 11.5 11.2
Fish and fish products 278,76 8 ,075.0 308,706,243.7 343,511,887.8 382,225,323.1 424,248,503.0
% growth y-o-y 9.4 10.7 11.3 11.3 11.0
Dairy 275,096.4 306,601.3 343,265.0 384,081.0 428,419.2
% growth y-o-y 10.1 11.5 12 11.9 11.5
Oils and fats 156,238.5 175,052.4 196,963.2 221,371.3 247,900.0
% growth y-o-y 10.7 12.0 12.5 12.4 12.0
915,616.0 1,017,002.0 1,127,028.2
63,0 27,6 21.9 69,822,363.3
52,805,184.4
55,777,745.3
77,193,279.8
58,745,739.9
Fresh and preserved fruits 205,246.0 228,333.6
% growth y-o-y 9.9 11.2 11.8 11.7 11.4
Fresh vegetables, 528,501.4 581,951.0 643,935.2 712,710.6 787,196.1
% growth y-o-y 8.9 10.1 10.7 10.7 10.5
255,194.5 285,090.3 317,559.4
Sugar and sugar products 74,310.8 78,791.4
% growth y-o-y 5.2 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.8
Other food products 218,092.2 241,021.5 267,669.6 297,300.5 329,456.4
% growth y-o-y 9.2 10.5 11.1 11.1 10.8
Source: BMI f = forecast
Structural trends
The expansion of the mass grocery retail industry will also promote
growth to 2021, as more consumers gain access to a wider range of
higher-value products. Increasing penetration of modern grocery
formats will also open up opportunities for premium brands in terms
of distribution and shelf-space, although lower cost options will
continue to form the bulk of average household spending.
As highlighted in a number of industry forecast scenarios for the
food and drink markets in Asia-Pacific, the presence of well-
established retail distribution systems is an integral factor for
consumer goods investors in building a nationwide spread and
enjoying success. A growing spread of organised retail throughout
the coming years is expected to enhance routes-to-market for
domestic confectionery players and bolster sales growth, as we
expect organised grocery retail to significantly expand on the
ground in the long term.
Rising disposable income, accompanied by growing urbanisation,
is likely to fuel a calibration of purchasing habits towards the higher
end and drive demand for impulse and indulgence foods, such as
confectionery.
7
83,935.2
89,592.4
95,674.9