Supply chains between the UK and the EU are incredibly intertwined and trade of finished products is vast . There is a received wisdom that the UK will be negotiating with a ‘ single entity ’ of the European Union . However this ignores the much more complicated and nuanced picture of different interest groups amongst the EU ’ s remaining 27 member states .

So based on the interests of

farmers across the EU , what kind of deal can the UK expect to get as Brexit negotiations continue ? There is an argument that many farmers would benefit from as many restrictions being placed on the UK ’ s ability to export agricultural products to the EU as possible . This includes the French beef industry which looks set to profit from less British competition . They might also push for a harder border between the UK and Ireland , spotting the potential to fill the vacuum in markets that British beef might soon be less competitive in .

However , there are many more reasons to think that a deal that restricts trade too much might actually be unpopular with the EU ’ s farmers . Many rely on the UK market as a key destination for their products . Farmers across the EU will likely already be lobbying their national governments to influence negotiation towards the result that they want to see , particularly those that could see sales and profits slashed . The

National Farmers Union here in the UK is certainly already making sure it has its interests represented at the negotiating table .

For example , countries such as Germany and the Netherlands rely on the UK as a key agricultural export market . In fact , the Netherlands last year was the biggest EU food exporter to the UK , with an estimated value of over £ 5 billion . Many will argue that they have little to gain from having to find replacement markets elsewhere . Irish farmers in particular will be arguing against the introduction of a hard border that makes trade with the UK much more difficult .

What is important to remember is that different farming sectors in different member states are likely to have their own unique views on what kind of a deal should be struck with the UK as it leaves the EU . It will be interesting therefore to see where farming groups are most able to get the ear of their national governments to push their specific agendas . The consequences for this shape the effect on both farmers and consumers , who face the prospect of price and product changes in their local supermarkets .

Plans for the agribusiness sector post Brexit are still up in the air , but one thing is clear - resorting to WTO tariffs for imports and exports will be catastrophic for

farmers on both sides of the Brexit divide and will have far-reaching consequences for the UK economy . The absence of a deal would in itself be a bad deal for agribusiness across both the UK and the EU , and consumers would also expect to see prices rise quite dramatically .

There are many more reasons

to think that a deal that restricts

trade too much might actually

be unpopular with the EU ’ s

farmers

There is still time to negotiate a deal that benefits both the UK and EU ’ s farmers , but the ticking of the clock should not be ignored . For those of us watching how these negotiations progress , one possible indicator of the end result will be which farming groups are lobbying the most , and which are successfully getting the attention of their governments . With so little hard information coming from either sides of the negotiations , farmers and the farming industry could well be one of the few indications we have as to the future relationship between the UK and the EU .