| Grain
Arable farming in a global market
Cecilia Pryce
A few good UK spring days, and farmers were flat out catching up on field work. The winter
and spring frustrations faced by UK farmers, have also been felt by many others around the
world.
he arrival of spring was delayed
in the US, where they saw
snow and excessive cold and
wet conditions, following on
from what was a very dry
winter, swinging markets
between drought, back to concerns around
delays in planting of corn, spring wheat and
soya due to rains. Meanwhile Australian and
Brazilian farmers are all struggling with
consistent lack of rain.
What this all this mean for commodity prices
and the price paid at the checkout is yet to be
fully understood. The last time the world had a
major cereal crop disaster was in 2012/13,
when the combined wheat, maize and barley
crop was 280M/mt less than 2017/18. It was an
amazing year, with the smaller crop largely
caused by the lack of rain in the US, so, it’s
important that traders, farmers and consumers
keep a close eye on weather in various
countries, while understanding issues closer to
home.
Weather markets are never easy to trade, not
only do you have to guess the impact of
climatic issues, but you also must understand
the different types of agriculture. Kansas is
America’s largest winter wheat growing State
and one to watch in the coming months. It has
a farmed area of around 46 million acres,
marginally bigger than the UK’s 43 million
acres, meaning 1 US State is a similar size to
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40 | Farming Monthly | May 2018
the UK, but that is where the similarity really
stops. The UK tends to harvest every acre
planted yet Kansas farmers only harvests 96%
to 88% of wheat planted, subject to weather,
and their average yield varies between 3.23-
2.82t/ha, against the UK averaging from a
recent low of 6.6574t/ha in 2012 to 8.9746t/ha
in 2015.
These difference goes some way in
explaining the uncertainty of estimating global
crops especially when you consider that wheat
quality and varieties also vary around the world,
adding further to the complexities. DEFRA
would be wise to remember this as they
consider the future of UK agriculture. The
current Health and Harmony consultation
document asks many questions but also raises
points that need to be remembered, namely
that: - ‘famers feed the country as well as look
after it.’
The UK risks environmental issues being
prioritised over food supply, turning the UK into
a nature reserve leaving us open to imports of
cheaper food that the average consumer
struggles to avoid buying. The future is
unknown, but we are, in reality, only one bad
weather event or trade issue away from a
genuine food security issue.
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