ENGLISH TEXTS except for Iresine and Zahir who are geldings ( hence not eligible for the Arc ), the acceleration in the Prix Niel and Prix Foy was disappointing relative to the pace of their races . These data indicate that these horses will likely struggle against the competitors from the Prix Vermeille , whose acceleration was much more pronounced .
Sectionals Ratings : a realistic measure of ability
On Sunday October 6 , 2024 , the Sectionals Ratings of horses from the preparatory races were clear . Here are the performance values obtained after these prep races and their respective odds before the Arc de Triomphe :
• Bluestocking : 117 ( 9 / 1 )
• Aventure : 113 ( 13 / 1 )
• Sosie : 108 ( 4.6 / 1 )
• Delius : 106 ( 18 / 1 )
• Continuous : 105 ( 21 / 1 )
• Look de Vega : 100 ( 6.5 / 1 )
These ratings represent the actual ability of each horse , calculated from their pace and acceleration . From here , you should choose the horse with the best chance to shine in the Arc . The analysis clearly shows who demonstrated winning potential .
So , who will you bet on ? If you ' re a savvy bettor , you ' ll likely trust Bluestocking with a Sectionals Rating of 117 . But don ' t overlook Aventure , who also showed significant potential . Sectionals Ratings are key to identifying horses capable of excelling in a race , and these numbers don ’ t lie .
Value Detector : comparing novices and veterans
It ’ s easy to hear phrases like “ He won well , but I don ’ t know what he beat ” or “ What ’ s the competition worth ?”. But a more reliable approach is to ask the crucial question : “ What ’ s his time and what are his sections ?” In other words , “ Tell me how fast you go , and I ’ ll tell you who you are .”
Let ’ s look at a concrete example during the November , 12 meeting at Chantilly : a textbook case that perfectly illustrates the real value of a performance .
• Mandanaba , a two-year-old debutante , wins easily by 6 lengths in 1.58.57 .
• Wild Pansy , a well-established four-year-old filly , wins a Quinté in a handicap race at 1.58.47 , maintaining a steady pace .
The raw times of both horses are surprisingly close , raising the question : what is Mandanaba ' s real value compared to Wild Pansy ?
The pace of both horses is similar , but what ’ s even more interesting are their respective accelerations : Wild Pansy covers the last 600 meters in 34.33 seconds , while Mandanaba does it in 34.48 seconds . These performances are almost identical . Yet , one is a debutante , and the other an experienced filly .
After adjusting the data for track speed and weight carried , Wild Pansy achieves a Sectional Rating corresponding to an official run value of 97 , while Mandanaba reaches a value of 89 , exceptional for a debutante . This type of performance is rare and shows clear potential for the future .
Conclusion : Objectivity above all
With this data , you move away from speculation or subjective judgments . You enter a world where every data point matters . Figures , performances and adjustments offer an accurate and objective evaluation of the real value of horses . Comparing Mandanaba and Wild Pansy provides a clear picture of their potential .
By integrating data and Sectionals Ratings into your analysis , you shift from speculation to concrete reality . You can assess horses with flawless objectivity and make informed choices , whether as an owner , bettor , breeder or trainer . Because in the end , it ’ s these numbers that determine the true winners .
“ CE N ’ EST PLUS UNE QUESTION DE CROIRE , MAIS DE SAVOIR ” Bruno Barbereau
LEFT ParisLongchamp on September 15 th , last , finish of the Prix Vermeille , a reference race for the Prix de l ' Arc , according to the data . © APRH
RIGHT Mandanaba during her debut , at Chantilly , on November 12 th . © APRH
FAR RIGHT Wild Pansy , winner on November 12 th at the Chantilly racecourse . © APRH
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ANIMATION Comparison of the performances of the unraced filly and her elder sibling relative to the reference horse .
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