Extraordinary And Plenipotentiary Diplomatist July 19 Edition .

HAPPENINGS BREXIT AND ITS IMPLICATION FOR INDIA Below is the synopsis of the lecture delivered by Amb (Retd.) Bhaswati Mukherjee at the Jadavpur Association of International Relations, Kolkata B rexit changed everything including the public mood. Brexit is regarded as the classic case study in the context of contemporary challenges that it poses to liberal democracies. There are many factors leading to Brexit, the prolonged and unhappy divorce of the United Kingdom from Europe. May’s failure to sell the ‘deal’ to a sceptical House of Commons resulted in her stepping down. The frontrunner to become PM, Boris Johnson, has vowed to take UK out of the EU by 31st October 2019, with or without a deal. The EU is India’s largest trading partner, accounting for around 13% of India’s total trade in goods in 2017. India contributes around 2.3% of total EU trade and is the EU’s ninth biggest trade partner. With €91 billion worth of India EU trade and €19.4 billion of India UK trade at stake, all partners needed to think through this issue carefully in the business and commercial context. Services are also an important component of EU-India trade. If in terms of the ﬁ nal Brexit no deal scenario, which seems increasingly likely, Indian business in UK, would be denied access to the EU market, the result would be the ﬂ ight of Indian business from UK to Europe. The UK has been seen by Indian ﬁ rms as a gateway to the European Union. A common market has so far ensured these companies barrier- free access to the EU countries. A hard or no deal Brexit would inevitably impact more than 800 Indian companies in UK in crucial sectors of British economy reportedly generating more than 110,000 jobs as well as ﬂ ows of tourism and business from India to UK. Others note that UK’s exit from the EU represents a win- win situation for India. They remain of the view that India could ﬁ ll the trade gap with regard to manufactured goods. In the present context, this does not seem to be likely. The current anti-foreign sentiment in the UK complicates the negotiations. The Indian Ministry of Commerce conﬁ rmed in mid-2017 that India and the UK could work on a FTA only after the lat- ter is oﬃ cially out of the EU. The Commerce Ministry then commenced an internal ‘audit’ and analysis of the trade issues with UK in anticipation of the negotiations. The content of a future India UK trade agreement would depend on the kind of deal and terms of exit that UK would negotiate to ﬁ nalize Brexit. UK cannot sign a trade agreement with India as long as it remains part of the EU. The situation is complex since India would insist on inclusion of Mode 4 (Mode 4 covers the tem- porary movement of natural persons) in a post Brexit scenario. According to informed sources, India will also refuse to give a separate dispensation to UK in areas within EU’s competence. The continuing impasse over Brexit demonstrates the danger of populism and populist policies impacting international peace and security, be it Northern Ireland or North Korea. Brexit threatens the fragile peace in Northern Ireland. The hardcore of Brexiteers are willing to gamble with the unity of Britain and to risk losing Scotland and Northern Ireland in their quest to be rid of Europe once and for all. As described by a prominent EU politician, Theresa May’s eﬀ orts to secure a deal is like trying to make an omelette while taking out the egg! CAN INDIA AND NORWAY TAKE A LEAP INTO THE NEW ERA OF PARTNERSHIP? W hen Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg arrived in India at the beginning of this year, it was not only the ﬁ rst time in ten years that the country was visited by a prime minister from Norway, but it was one of the largest delegations from Norway ever to visit India. Delivering a lecture at India International Centre, H.E. Nils Rangnar Kamsvåg, Ambassador of Norway to India, outlined Norway’s India Strategy. Ambassador Kamsvåg said that the strategy is really a formalisation of what has already been happening. “The focus areas of the strategy are based on Norway’s national and global interests, Norway’s competitive edge, and the priorities of India. There will be an emphasis on political contact and government-level cooperation, business cooperation, and research cooperation,” added Ambassador Kamsvåg. He also outlined the four priority areas identiﬁ ed in the strategy which are: Democracy and rule-based world order, Ocean, Energy & Climate and Environment. Chairing the session, Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar said “There has been a surge in trade, investments, transfer-of- technology and other contacts between the two countries. The present growth in Indo-Norwegian eco-commercial ties has been powered by a common interest. Norway is an important partner to India, where increased trade, investments and economic cooperation with mutual beneﬁ ts are the highest priority for our two countries.” 56 • Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 7 • Issue 7 • July 2019, Noida

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