Extraordinary And Plenipotentiary Diplomatist diplomatist vol-7 Issue -9 sep 2019 | Page 50

PERSPECTIVE A PERSIAN OR SAUDI SEPTEMBER SURPRISE? BY DANIEL KURTZER* I n the run-up to the Sept. 17 Israeli elections, the Israeli media have speculated on what President Donald Trump will do to help re-elect Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It is unlikely that Trump will do anything more to advance peace, or whether such a move would help Netanyahu. Indeed, the announcement today that Trump’s Middle East peace envoy, Jason Greenblatt, is resigning casts doubt on whether the United States will even unveil Trump’s so-called “ultimate deal” after the election. Trump has already gifted to Netanyahu American recognition of Israeli sovereignty in the Golan Heights and moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Current speculation of what Netanyahu might ask of Trump ranges from the recognition of the extension of Israeli sovereignty in parts of the West Bank to support for a U.S.-Israeli defense treaty. Neither of these, however, is likely to swing undecided voters to support Netanyahu, since Trump’s unwavering support for the Israeli right’s policies is a known factor, old news. There are two long-shot possibilities to consider that could have a signifi cant impact on the Israeli elections, one that would favor Netanyahu and another that would undermine his chances for re-election. Neither is likely, for the reasons noted below; but both are worth considering to understand the value of what a real surprise means in democratic elections. Iran, paradoxically, holds the strongest card, one that could arm the opposition to Netanyahu with a powerful electoral weapon. As we have seen in recent weeks, Trump is quite desperate to meet the Iranian leadership, believing that his self- proclaimed skills as a deal-maker could unlock the diplomatic stalemate with Iran over its nuclear program, missile 50 • Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 7 • Issue 9 • September 2019, Noida