ExpertEye European Automotive Report Q3 2016 | Page 4

European GDP

.

Despite the slowdown in the global economy Europe continues to weather the storm in a reasonable condition in part due to the exchange
rate and low oil prices which have been good for both exports and private consumption. In fact growth for the first half of 2016 in the euro
zone exceeded that seen in the US.
Non-euro countries in the EU are still outperforming the eurozone region. With the eurozone set to hit 1.7% growth in 2016 and falling to
1.5% in 2017 non-euro countries push the EU average up by a further percentage point this year and next year in spite of the considerable
size difference. This stronger growth can be seen across most of the non-euro members with 2017 growth forecast to be particularly strong
in Romania (3.9%), Poland (3.4%), Bulgaria (2.9), Czech Republic (2.6%), Hungary (2.6%), Croatia (2.5) and Sweden (2.4%).
Amongst the five biggest European countries Spain continues to see the strongest recovery at 3.2% forecast for 2016 and 2.3% for next year
with the UK set to rise 1.9% this year before falling behind the other major markets as the weak pound continues to drive up prices.
The outlook still remains uncertain with the timing of Brexit still unclear following the recent UK court ruling forcing a House of Commons
vote on invoking Article 50. The rising discontent with globalisation seen across the west is increasing the economic uncertainty putting
pressure on exports, whilst the high levels of household debt in some member countries will continue to put negative pressure on growth.
5.0
4.0

EU (28 countries)

3.0

Germany

2.0

Spain

1.0

France

-

-1.0

2010

2011

2012

-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
European Automotive Report - 2016 Quarter 3

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

Italy
Portugal
United Kingdom

Source: European Commission, OECD and the IMF

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