ExpertEye European Automotive Report Q3 2016 | Page 23
Top 10 Makes
sales drop by over 31% in 2011. With the economic picture looking much better this time we
expect a further circa 12% growth in 2017 followed by a modest 6% rise 2018 as car sales get close
3 Month
to 250,000 units p.a..
RV%
Change
MARKET AVERAGE
43.3
+0.3%
With investment remaining weak it is unsurprising to see commercial vehicle sales seeing a reverse
LAND ROVER
55.1
+1.8%
in fortunes with sales dropping 1.4% in October although the strong start to the first half of the
BM W
50.1
+0.1%
M INI
49.7
-1.0%
year still leaves sales up 14% YTD. With only a couple of months left we think CV sales growth may
NISSAN
49.6
+0.4%
fall a little further ending 2016 at around 12%. Going forward the pickup in investment forecast
VOLVO
49.3
+0.5%
over 2017 and 2018 should provide a platform for CV sales to improve further with a potential for
AUDI
49.0
-1.2%
HYUNDAI
47.7
+1.1%
ALFA ROM EO
47.2
-0.9%
HONDA
47.0
-1.8%
M AZDA
46.6
-0.4%
both years to see double digit growth.
Residual values increased by a modest 0.3% over the last quarter but with Portugal still having
some of the highest RVs across Europe there is little room for significant improvement. Despite the
European Court of Justice ruling over Portugal’s unfair vehicle import tax there has so far been
Top 10 Segments
little news on what will happen next but the prospect of cheaper imports will undoubtedly be
3 Month
playing on the minds of RV setters. At a brand level BMW has moved up from fourth to second
RV%
Change
behind the still table topping Land Rover, whilst BMW’s rival Audi saw values drop by 1.4% with
MARKET AVERAGE
43.3
+0.3%
much speculation over whether there is any link to the diesel emissions issue. Further down the
C2 M edium Premium
53.5
+0.3%
J3 Premium SUV
50.9
-0.2%
D2 Large Premium
50.3
-1.3%
J2 Compact SUV
49.6
+0.4%
table Hyundai has moved straight into seventh place helped by the launch of the new Tucson with
SUVs remaining as popular with the Portuguese as ever.
E1 Executive
Source: Experteye AG
48.8
+1.5%
The small increase in RVs is in line with how we see them developing over the next couple of years
J4 Luxury SUV
48.5
+2.5%
unless the vehicle import tax is abolished which would see RVs drop by a couple of percentage
C1 M edium
48.0
-0.5%
M 2 Large M PV
47.9
+0.6%
J1 Small SUV
47.6
+0.7%
M 1 Small M PV
47.3
-0.4%
points in some segments as values normalise with Spain.
Source: ExpertEye AG
European Automotive Report - 2016 Quarter 3
22