ExpertEye European Automotive Report Q3 2016 | Page 23

Top 10 Makes sales drop by over 31% in 2011. With the economic picture looking much better this time we expect a further circa 12% growth in 2017 followed by a modest 6% rise 2018 as car sales get close 3 Month to 250,000 units p.a.. RV% Change MARKET AVERAGE 43.3 +0.3% With investment remaining weak it is unsurprising to see commercial vehicle sales seeing a reverse LAND ROVER 55.1 +1.8% in fortunes with sales dropping 1.4% in October although the strong start to the first half of the BM W 50.1 +0.1% M INI 49.7 -1.0% year still leaves sales up 14% YTD. With only a couple of months left we think CV sales growth may NISSAN 49.6 +0.4% fall a little further ending 2016 at around 12%. Going forward the pickup in investment forecast VOLVO 49.3 +0.5% over 2017 and 2018 should provide a platform for CV sales to improve further with a potential for AUDI 49.0 -1.2% HYUNDAI 47.7 +1.1% ALFA ROM EO 47.2 -0.9% HONDA 47.0 -1.8% M AZDA 46.6 -0.4% both years to see double digit growth. Residual values increased by a modest 0.3% over the last quarter but with Portugal still having some of the highest RVs across Europe there is little room for significant improvement. Despite the European Court of Justice ruling over Portugal’s unfair vehicle import tax there has so far been Top 10 Segments little news on what will happen next but the prospect of cheaper imports will undoubtedly be 3 Month playing on the minds of RV setters. At a brand level BMW has moved up from fourth to second RV% Change behind the still table topping Land Rover, whilst BMW’s rival Audi saw values drop by 1.4% with MARKET AVERAGE 43.3 +0.3% much speculation over whether there is any link to the diesel emissions issue. Further down the C2 M edium Premium 53.5 +0.3% J3 Premium SUV 50.9 -0.2% D2 Large Premium 50.3 -1.3% J2 Compact SUV 49.6 +0.4% table Hyundai has moved straight into seventh place helped by the launch of the new Tucson with SUVs remaining as popular with the Portuguese as ever. E1 Executive Source: Experteye AG 48.8 +1.5% The small increase in RVs is in line with how we see them developing over the next couple of years J4 Luxury SUV 48.5 +2.5% unless the vehicle import tax is abolished which would see RVs drop by a couple of percentage C1 M edium 48.0 -0.5% M 2 Large M PV 47.9 +0.6% J1 Small SUV 47.6 +0.7% M 1 Small M PV 47.3 -0.4% points in some segments as values normalise with Spain. Source: ExpertEye AG European Automotive Report - 2016 Quarter 3 22