ExpertEye European Automotive Report Q3 2016 | Page 11

Passenger car sales failing to keep pace with population growth 40 annum and is now 2.7% higher than in 2006 according to the World Bank’s France Germany Portugal Spain UK 2021f 2020f 2019f 2018f 2017f 2015 2016f 2014 2013 2012 Total EU28+EFTA* Italy Source: ACEA.BE, World Bank: Population Total, Bowkett Auto Consulting Ltd population data. The percentage share of children has remained relatively 107 static particularly in the larger car markets. This means the volume of new 2011 over that same period the population for the region has grown by 0.3% per 2010 0 2009 annum and are currently set to be 5.1% lower this year than 2006. However 2008 10 2007 2016, new car sales have actually been falling by an average of 0.4% per 2006 20 2000 Excluding Croatia for analysis purposes, from 2006 to the latest forecast for 2005 30 2004 to see a different picture. 50 2003 some pundits are already saying. If you dig a little deeper though, you start Passenger cars per thousand population 60 2002 European car market is rapidly overheating and that a crash is inevitable, as 70 2001 Taking a high level look at the new car sales volume it is easy to think the . Harmonised consumer price index 105 Index point 2015 car sales per head of population has actually fallen from 31.3 cars per 103 thousand in the EU28 and EFTA3 to 29.2 cars per thousand by the end of 101 2016. In fact only Germany (0.7) and the UK (3.5) will sell more cars per 99 thousand population than in 2000. But 2000 was an abnormal year for the UK 97 due to the “Rip off Britain” campaign and New Cars Order 2000. The UK 95 average for the seven subsequent years means even the UK will sell 0.1 cars 93 per thousand less in 2016 than before the economic crash. Source: European Commission 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 European Union Euro area Germany Spain France Italy Portugal UK The fall in energy prices has helped drag down inflation in the euro area during the first half 2016. However as this fall unwinds, and is exacerbated in the UK due to the weak sterling, the inflation profile through 2017 and 2018 is expected to remain above 1% and to gradually increase given the current market expectations of a moderate oil price increase. European Automotive Report - 2016 Quarter 3 10