ExpertEye European Automotive Report Q1 2017 | Page 25

New car sales in Spain rose 10.9% in 2016 and by the end of Q1 2017 was already up a further 6.2% and
with a further 1.1% rise in April 2017. This positive trend is expected to continue throughout 2017 with
a further 4.5% increase in sales in 2018 but this will still mean new car sales are 22% lower than their
peak in 2006 when 36.8 cars were sold per thousand of population compared to the current run rate
of just 26.3 for 2017. It is this gap in demand combined with the more positive economic outlook which
should sustain the car market in Spain at least until the end of this decade.
The RV index of 3-year-old cars increased a little in Q1 2017 over Q4 2016, rising 1.2%, but by March
there are some signs of RVs plateauing as RVs fell marginally. At all age and mileages there was even
a slight downturn this quarter with a 0.5% fall in the market average. When considered in conjunction
with each other this is consistent with our opinion for a general market stabilisation in values.
At a brand level BMW continue to see values falling as some of their products are starting to age
however their Mini brand saw a string revival from the falls seen late last year. Overall Spain’s love
affair with premium brands and prestige models continues and the days of austerity car buying are
now long forgotten.
The Premium and luxury SUV segments both enjoyed reasonable increases in RVs and whilst Compact
and Small SUVs saw falls of 1.8% and 1.5% respectively this is more to do with lifecycle depreciation
impacting their RVs rather than any fall in popularity in the market place.
RVs in general appear to have been enjoying an inexorable rise but this is expected to slow down and
stabilise during 2017 as the market returns to a more normal pattern of behaviour. Our view remains
unchanged that RVs will remain relatively flat with increases just in line with inflation over the next
couple of years.
European Automotive Report - 2017 Quarter 1
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