Globex outlook set fair
Globex co-editor Athan Siah says AMR ’ s 3-year forecasts are cautiously optimistic amid macroeconomic headwinds
here ’ s no denying
T that it has been a tough three years for the global exhibition industry . While we continue to face an onslaught of challenges , it ’ s a relief to see that the tide is turning for organisers with many markets now on the road to recovery .
The move to a more positive outlook became clear as we at AMR International compiled our annual Globex report on the global exhibition industry . The team of strategy consultants set out threeyear forecasts for 20 * mature and emerging markets .
Growth to accelerate 2022-2024 The good news , we expect recovery to accelerate in 2022 , driven by the lifting of Covid-driven restrictions in the vast majority of countries ( excluding China ). From here , we forecast the global market to almost reach 2019 levels by 2024 , albeit some of this being price-led as NSM volumes are likely to remain slightly below pre-pandemic levels in aggregate .
The chart below illustrates market performance over time , dating back to 2017 with market projections to 2024 .
Moving on from Covid As countries come out of the pandemic , there has been divergence in the recovery paths of their exhibition markets . Based on
Globex co-editor Athan Siah
AMR ’ s 2024 forecasts , the US and UK , large mature markets where shows have largely domestic visitor bases , are expected to surpass pre- Covid levels and reach 105-110 % of their pre-Covid high .
More cautiously , China is expected to reach c . 90 % of its pre- Covid size by 2024 , assuming ( and this is a big if ) there are no further large-scale Covid outbreaks that trigger regional lockdowns and prohibit exhibition activity . All other markets fall in the 90-110 % range , with the exception of Russia , which lags far behind due to the ongoing war in Ukraine .
Growth in average price per sqm ( 2023 ) vs inflation This chart on page 47 maps the estimated change in average price per sqm in 2021 across the 20 key exhibition markets , benchmarked against inflation . The markets have been ordered in descending order of their 2021 size .
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Global market forecast ($ bn ), 2017 – 2024
-67 % |
-57 % |
-28 % |
-13 % |
-3 % |
26.2 28.1 29.1 9.6 12.5 20.9 25.5 28.2
2017
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
www . exhibitionworld . co . uk Issue 6 2022 45