Exhibition World Issue 6 – 2021 | Page 29

Research

A tale of two Asias

Globex editor Carole Boletti and co-author Athan Siah examine how China is leading post-Covid recovery while Southeast Asia lags behind
ovid-19 has had a

C devastating impact on the exhibition industry worldwide . Last year , AMR International ’ s Globex report estimated a 69 % decline in the global market size in 2020 , which has now been realised .

As the dust settles and we have greater visibility on post-Covid recovery , the latest edition of Globex sets out three-year forecasts for 20 key exhibition markets , with strong country variations depending on travel restrictions , vaccination progress , and macroeconomic resilience .
On a global level , AMR expects recovery to be gradual , with the market nearly reaching 2019 levels by 2023 when Covid-driven restrictions prohibiting face-toface exhibitions will hopefully be a distant memory .
For some time now , Southeast Asian markets have promised rapid growth : it was always supposed to be a matter of time before strong underlying economic growth and the huge , increasingly affluent , population translated into booming demand for exhibitions in the region . Expansions and acquisitions by leading international organisers , coupled with an influx of private capital , have resulted in new shows and growing venues .
However , these Southeast Asian markets may be the slowest in recovering from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic , owing to relatively late vaccination campaigns
Above : SNIEC venue in Shanghai and strict border restrictions . Certainly , looking at the 2021 forecasts in Globex , the largest Southeast Asian markets ( Singapore ►, Philippines , Thailand ) are expected to experience the greatest decline compared to their pre-Covid size .
On the other hand , the first postlockdown face-to-face shows in China took place back in June 2020 . Since then , despite periodic regional lockdowns , exhibition activity has largely returned to pre-Covid levels . Indeed , some shows have seen NSM growth since their last pre-Covid edition , though these shows remain the minority .
A successful vaccination campaign and extremely strict border controls have allowed shows within China to return at full scale . As a result , AMR estimates that the Chinese exhibition market in 2021 will reach 91 % of its pre-Covid size , on track to achieving full recovery by 2022 .
One caveat to this is that major international shows , such as the biannual Canton Fair , have not recovered to their full size , due to the
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