Bouncing into budgeting
Five months into his six-month term as EW guest editor , and as organisers finalise their 2022 budgets , Paul Woodward takes stock of where the world is today and how the industry is looking based on the discussions he ’ s been having with leaders around the globe
hose economists have
T a way of spoiling your day . The markets are up ? “ Dead cat bounce ,” they say . Your wages are going up ? “ Inflation ,” they cluck or , even worse , “ stagflation ”. No wonder some CEOs in the exhibition world have banned the purveyors of the so-called dismal science from conference platforms they manage .
So , we ’ ll do our best to leave the Dr Doom Halloween mask in the drawer . But , before we move on , let ’ s get the less encouraging news out of the way . Having shown a strong bounce back from the dire times of 2020 in the first half of this year , most major economies are slowing . That was expected . But many are slowing a little bit more than expected and the IMF has downgraded its global growth forecasts . Supply chain snafus ( what the Economist magazine is calling ‘ the shortage economy ’) combined with continued delta variant disruptions , are taking the shine off growth .
That shortage economy , combined with oil and gas producers cashing in , and tight labour markets ( we won ’ t go down that particular rabbit hole today ) are all combining to push up inflation . Even in Germany , where they ’ re allergic to it , we ’ re talking 5 %. It ’ s hardly time for taking wheelbarrows of Euros to the bakers and economists are generally convinced this inflationary bubble will be shortlived . But the world has got used to this being well under control . It ’ s a bit scary and that ’ s denting business confidence a little .
So far , so unsettling . But , what about global trade , the key driver of the international trade fairs which are our key focus here at Exhibition World ? Here there ’ s some good news . The World Trade Organisation recently updated its forecasts and it now expects that merchandise trade will be back on its pre-pandemic track by the end of 2022 . That ’ s a substantial upgrade from the previous forecast in July and undoubtedly good news for our industry .
So , what does this all mean for the world of exhibitions ? Around the world , most organisers are in the process of finalising their budgets for next year . Everyone has a very sharp eye on the crystal ball . Firstly , I would echo what ►
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