A Globex view on the market
A year in review , and what could unfold in 2021
ssessing the impacts and predicting the future of the global exhibitions market has never been more difficult . For the latest annual Globex report released by AMR International , the analysis includes a full assessment of the global markets and an outlook to 2022 . To better understand the challenges facing organisers , EW interviewed Globex editor Carole Boletti .
What has been the direct impact of Covid-19 on the global exhibitions market ? Without question , this year will see the sharpest drop in exhibition market value ever registered . Organisers around the world have been forced to cancel and reschedule a large proportion of their portfolios , leading to a considerable reduction in revenue . As a result , we expect the global market size in 2020 will contract by 69 % from 2019 levels . There are quite strong country variations and our full report goes into the details behind this .
Estimated decline in market size in 2020 vs . 2019
China Mainland Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam France Germany Italy Russia Turkey United Kingdom
For organisers , 2020 has been a year of major upheaval . On the one hand , most have resorted to far reaching cost management programmes in response to greatly reduced revenues . On the other hand , many have moved their brands online to provide a digital platform for customer engagement . In some instances , these virtual events have been a source of revenue recapture , but in general are more viewed as a strategically important means of ‘ occupying the space ’ and remaining relevant in the eyes of their customers . We think that for the most forward-looking organisers , Covid will have prompted a major rethink of how they create value for their served communities .
It is worth remembering , however , that although a record year by absolute size ( the market reaching US $ 29bn in 2019 ,) total market growth slowed to 2.8 % last year compared to the 5.6 % growth recorded in 2018 . The reduced growth rate reflected a broader slowdown due to a reduction in manufacturing activity and heightened trade tensions between the
53 %
60 % 56 %
68 %
72 %
73 %
69 %
76 %
83 %
80 % 90 % 91 % 93 % 91 % 94 %
Above right and left : Source . Globex 2020 by AMR International
US and China .
In addition , 2019 saw the most elections held in a year across G20 countries for over 50 years , which caused a level of political uncertainty . To a lesser extent , 2019 was also a slower year due to weaker biennial sales in certain mature markets ( e . g . Germany , Italy ).
Overall market projections , 2020-2022 bn
2017
2018
2019
2020
9.1
No 2021 estimates due to uncertain environment
2022F
22.5
26.7
-69 %
28.2
29.0
-22 %
Explain the challenge of forecasting for 2021 ? Can any assumptions be made at this stage ? The 2021 performance of exhibition markets will ultimately depend on the severity of future Covid waves , the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns and how regulation on gatherings will evolve . The unpredictable nature of all these determining factors makes a quantitative assessment of the exhibition market for 2021 nigh on impossible . That being said , we will be issuing live market size updates for our Globex readers in Autumn and in Spring 2021 , as the market is changing so rapidly .
As the Covid crisis continues it becomes ever more apparent that 2021 will also see depressed revenue , with widespread cancellations and postponements already announced for H1 . This is likely to place an even greater strain on those organisers banking on the return of F2F to solve their problems and not thinking about developing digital revenue streams .
www . exhibitionworld . co . uk Issue 6 2020 49