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China ’ s path to recovery
Industry specialist consultancy jwc tells EW how the bounce back of the world ’ s second biggest economy is far from plain sailing
hina , the world ’ s secondlargest economy , faced
C significant challenges in
2022 due to the impact of Covid-19 lockdowns and a historic downturn in the property market . The country saw its GDP grow by 3 % during that year , marking the secondlowest level in four decades . However , as the anti-virus controls were lifted in December 2022 , activities began to revive , setting the stage for a modest recovery .
Over the past three years following the outbreak of Covid-19 , China has maintained a GDP growth of 4.5 % ( CAGR ). Yet , the country ’ s economy seems to be far from returning to full health . China ’ s property sector , which accounts for about 30 per cent of its economic output , is in trouble . Exports fell significantly due to increased protectionism abroad and high inflation . Youth unemployment has reached unprecedented levels of about 25 % in the cities . The country ’ s economic bounce back is fragile . “ The foundation for the economic recovery is not yet solid ,” the National Bureau of Statistics recently said . To mitigate these challenges , the government is seeking to encourage domestic consumption and will continue to spur infrastructure investments , albeit at lower than previous levels . However , the current high debt levels of the country will limit the extent of stimulus .
Amidst these economic fluctuations , China ’ s exhibition industry has displayed remarkable resilience . Following the removal of Covid-19 controls in December 2022 , several prominent MICE cities , including Shanghai and Shenzhen , have announced forecasts to return to around 80 % or above of pre-Covid levels in 2023 .
When compared to the first half of 2019 , several key metrics have surpassed the figures , highlighting the sector ’ s resurgence . The total exhibition space rented during January to May of 2023 has exceeded the number recorded during the same period in 2019 on a national scale . The number of exhibitions with floor spaces exceeding 10,000sqm has grown by 23 % during January to May of 2023 compared to the same period l If you are interested in this report , please contact us at info @ jwc . eu . com . in 2019 . Similarly , the total number of shows has exceeded pre-pandemic levels . This is due to the fact that many of the shows were not able to take place during 2022 , and are now eager to make up for losses at the beginning of 2023 .
Major exhibitions like the China International Battery Fair ( CIBF ) have witnessed substantial growth , hosting 2,400 exhibitors this year , a significant increase from 1,253 in 2018 . Similarly , Auto Shanghai maintained 360,000sqm of exhibition space even during the pandemic ’ s challenges , highlighting the industry ’ s resilience .
Currently , eight large new venues exceeding 120,000sqm are expected to go into operation this year , further underlying the positive outlook for the industry in the country . With 22 venues currently under construction , China aims to offer 318 venues , providing roughly 14.7m sqm of exhibition space in the coming years , clearly exceeding the capacities in all other markets , including the United States . Many of these new venues will be developed in 2nd and 3rd-tier cities .
Unfortunately , whilst the overall outlook for the industry in China remains positive , there has been a notable decrease in the number of international organisers currently active in China . This could , in part , be driven by China ’ s focus on domestic markets and a decline in international exports .
A deep dive into China ’ s exhibition industry with up-to-date information and analyses and other major markets including India and the Middle East will feature in jwc ’ s upcoming Global Industry Performance Review ( GIPR ) which will be available in November . GIPR will also include an overview of the performance of the top 40 exhibition companies and of the different industry markets , as well as the latest trends and industry strategies . EW
60 Issue 5 2023 www . exhibitionworld . co . uk