n one risk planning exercise for UBM senior management , Simon Foster recalls the task was to come up with an imaginary scenario which would stop the global exhibition industry in its tracks . Taking into account the experience of the Icelandic volcano ash cloud of 2011 and SARS two years later , they decided that a global pandemic which brought airline travel to a standstill would do it . The meeting leader told the group : ‘ I think you ’ re being a bit outrageous ’, Foster recalls .

It was , sadly , not as outrageous as they imagined , and , although travel is resuming in places , it remains heavily disrupted . This is significantly impacting the recovery of exhibition businesses , although some markets are more affected than others .

AUMA , the German exhibition industry association , noted last month that “ 60 % of the 180,000 exhibitors each year [ at German fairs ] come from abroad , a third from outside Europe ”. Some 30 % of those trade fair visitors also come from outside Germany . “ Open borders and the smoothest possible international travel are essential for German fairs ,” AUMA went on to say . As a result , jwc ’ s Global Industry Performance Review predicts that Germany will only be back at 75 % of pre-pandemic business levels by 2023 . The EU Digital Covid Certificate will have been welcomed as a step in the right direction , as the rest of the EU is a crucial source market for Germany . Domestic travel within China is now back above pre-pandemic levels , while in the US , the Global Business Travel Association ( GBTA ) reports that while around 60 % of companies had cancelled or suspended most domestic travel in mid-June , more

than half expected it to resume within the next one to three months .

The willingness of business people to travel seems to be outstripping cautious travel policies . That same GBTA research said that 77 % of respondents were either ‘ somewhat ’ or ‘ very willing ’ to travel , up from 49 % at the beginning of the year . There have been reports of international participants at fairs in Dubai willing to tolerate up to 14 days quarantine on returning home from what they considered to be important events . At the time , those were pretty much the only trade fairs taking place . It will be interesting to see whether that same level of enthusiasm will apply as more regional events reopen if quarantine levels are maintained .

The markets dependent on international buyers have taken very different approaches . Dubai has pressed ahead with an events programme for most of this year . The reopening after the Gulf summer , when events such as GITEX and Expo 2020 take place , will provide a good barometer of how near to back to normal we are there .

Hong Kong has taken an ultra-

Right : Jon Benjamin , MD , ASP

GBTA research said that 77 % of respondents were either ‘ somewhat ’ or ‘ very willing ’ to travel , up from 49 % at the beginning of the year

cautious approach with strict hotel quarantines for all visitors . With most of its trade fairs reliant on 70 % or more international buyers and high levels of international exhibitors , the industry remains effectively in the deep freeze . We are into uncharted territory about the impact of losing two or more years of a trade fair cycle . Hong Kong ’ s saving grace is that hardly anywhere else in the region is open to draw away its customers .

In late June , the Singapore government announced it would begin to implement a significant change of tack , moving from a strict , containment strategy toward what is being described as “ living with endemic Covid-19 ”. Ministers told the Straits Times newspaper “ The bad news is that Covid-19 may never go away . The good news is that it is possible to live normally with it in our midst ”. With a combination of testing and vaccination the authorities say they hope to ease rules and resume large gatherings at major events .

Singapore could steal a substantial advantage over Asia-Pacific region rivals who either stick to their ‘ zero covid ’ strategies or struggle to get a sufficient portion of their populations vaccinated before the next waves and variants of the virus arrive .

The mutual recognition of vaccination certificates remains a challenge . IATA , has been pushing its Travel Pass app as a common standard although there are competing schemes . There is clearly a need for governments , the travel , and trade fair industries to work together to instil confidence that travelling for business can again be safe and convenient . As the Economist put it : “ For the economic recovery to continue , people must be willing to mix with others .”