Will we see major changes in the ownership of tradeshows ?

There will be even more major changes than the last 10 years – only 11 of the UK ’ s 30 largest events in 2011 are still owned by the same company .

RELX are likely to sell their exhibition assets when they can get a decent price . At the moment they have a Price Earnings Ratio of a very high 28 but would find it hard to get better than 13 / 14x profits for the tradeshows , which means that selling the tradeshows would reduce the value of the whole business . The only organiser large enough to buy RELX is Informa , but that would create monopoly issues and be a very brave doubling down . So , the likely buyer is a big Private Equity group like Carlyle , CVC or Cinven which would then go on an acquisition spree .

Who else is likely to grow or decline ?

It is becoming clear that the mid-size companies with major Private Equity ownership ( Tarsus , CloserStill and , to an extent , Clarion ) are in the strongest position to expand . They don ’ t have to report to the stock market . They don ’ t have to be ‘ afraid ’ of what the pandemic might mean to uninformed shareholders . They have the funds and can take a five-year view .

Some German Messen have taken big hits and have had big problems in reducing staffing levels . They are likely to start disposing of products

bought and launched during their expansion phase .

Comexposium , the other major player not mentioned so far , is in the French equivalent of administration and what happens there is almost impossible to predict . Some close to the story are predicting a breakup .

Mark Shashoua ’ s Hyve has handled the crisis well to date : raising funds impressively early , and being one of the two big players to benefit from insurance ( Emerald being the other ). But the level of debt and the complications of being publicly quoted make more major moves ( like buying Ascential ) difficult . A crystal ball would suggest that Mark takes the business private with a Private Equity partner sometime in the next few years .

Will tradeshows come back strongly ?

An unequivocal yes . For most tradeshows , the intangibles are more important than the tangibles . If you think ROI is the only driving factor for a tradeshow , and you keep obsessing about it , you will never understand your business . Humans like meeting other people , they like knowing that there is an industry meeting place in the calendar , they like seeing what other people do , they like travelling away for three or four days , they like touch and feel . These are not ‘ tradeshow ’ truths . They are human truths .

There are shades of grey . ‘ Transactional events ’, such as those focusing on giftware or clothing , are different from security events . But

‘ The past is now part of my future , The present is well out of hand ’ – Ian Curtis , Joy Division

What makes you so sure that tradeshows will survive ?

Above all else rollover rates . We are consistently seeing 90 % of exhibitors and delegates saying they are happy to simply be on the floor plan for the next event , whenever it occurs .

We started off assuming that more than 50 % of customers would ask for their money back ( rather like the airlines ). The actual number is around 10 %. This seems to confirm that our customers believe in the power of tradeshows . I stress that I am talking about tradeshows here – consumer shows may be rather different given their revenue balance .

We have heard a lot about a ‘ pivot to digital ’ in the last few months . How significant is this ?

Well , the first question to ask , and which seems largely to be forgotten , is ‘ why do people go to tradeshows ?’ You would not seek to invent a new mouse trap without first asking ‘ why do people buy mouse traps ?’ And that is the key . Why do people go to tradeshows ? Digital alternatives have existed for a long time . All manner of communications businesses , including tradeshow companies , do now and will use digital forms as part of their offering . Some of these will be creative and will be adopted by our industry . The increasing ability to dig down into our exhibitor and visitor data will enhance this . But none of it changes why people like going to tradeshows .