I t ’ s still very early in 2023 , but one of the big stories of the year , possibly the biggest , is going to annoy a lot of people . China is not flavour of the month for many in Washington and some European capitals . But the shock reversal of its zero Covid policies at the end of last year , together with a re-opening of international borders on 8 January , have the potential to redraw the priorities of many businesses , not least those in the exhibitions world . I have personally been doing business in China for almost 40 years and will concede to having made one consistent mistake there : I have regularly underestimated just how quickly things are likely to change . And this time is no exception . Things are moving fast .
As recently as mid-December , industry pundits were beginning to feel more optimistic that the market would start to re-open but did not expect that we would see any substantial movement until the second half of 2023 . Now , as I write in early January , we are already seeing international events taking place in smaller cities in China and visitors from both the mainland and the rest of the world attending Hong Kong ’ s January fairs .
As the CEO of one international organiser put it to us : “ Overall , sentiment is very positive and this feels just like it did when the US re-opened ”.
Responsibility for exhibitions is being handed back from the
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police and health authorities to the ministry of commerce ( Mofcom ) and its provincial and municipal subsidiaries . And , at a local level , those in the industry are seeing other positive developments : “ I just had the best meeting I ever did with my district government ”, one venue manager told me . “ In the past they ’ ve only ever complained about traffic and parking . But now , after having been basically closed for over a year , they really understand the value that our business brings to the area .”
Of course , it ’ s not all good news . The sudden lifting of restrictions on an under-vaccinated population which has not really been exposed to the full force of Covid has caused a massive wave . Hundreds of millions have probably been infected in the past weeks although precise and reliable numbers are now hard to come by . Officials in Zhejiang province , which borders Shanghai and includes much of China ’ s light industry , spoke recently of 79 % of the population there having now been infected .
Anecdotally , other organisers tell us that , although they welcome the re-opening , it would have be practically difficult to organise an event in January as such a significant number of their own staff , as well as venue , contractor , and exhibitor employees along with potential visitors have been unwell . After effectively being closed for almost a year , one major venue commented that they ’ ll need a few
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Paul Woodward |
weeks to get ready to open .
Crest of the Covid wave It seems clear from press reports that those on the ground believe the big wave is cresting in the major cities . As the rest of the world discovered some time ago , the impact will linger for some time in the elderly and vulnerable . But it did seem that much of the urban population would be able to look forward to a more normal work and travel environment after the Chinese New Year holidays which this year fell in the third week of January .
Those we have spoken to in recent days expect that business will pick up rapidly in the second-tier cities though February with Beijing following shortly afterwards and Shanghai opening the slowest . The likely elevation of the city ’ s former party secretary to prime minister has made Shanghai particularly cautious about re-opening . But , even there , the expectation is that
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