Phil Soar
recovered quite quickly and were back to 1990 levels by 1997 .
Between 2000 and 2003 , square metres sold fell by 16.5 % and in fact never recovered to their 2000 levels . However , as with visitor numbers , 2000 was the all-time peak of spending on space at UK events and the fall was therefore from a slightly artificial high .
Between 2008 and 2011 , sold square metres fell by 16.2 % and have never since recovered back to the 2008 level . In 2016 , square meters were still 6 % below the pre- Lehmann crash .
There is a pattern here . We cannot know whether the period 1990-2022 is typical , nor whether the UK is typical , but these are the numbers we have to work with .
History would therefore suggest that we might lose 20 % of ‘ expected ’ visitors in a recession running from 2022 to 2024 .
Sold square metres showed remarkably consistent declines in these recessions – of around 15 %. And square metres tend to recover quicker than visitor numbers .
History doesn ’ t repeat , but it rhymes A few caveats : History rarely repeats itself , but it does tend to rhyme .
It is important to recognise that this does not mean all shows might lose 20 % of their visitors and 15 % of their square metres . In the past , larger shows have lost more than smaller shows , though smaller shows disappearing have been part of the picture . And it is certain to be sector specific .
In the 2000-2002 recession , IT shows lost 38 % of their audience , building-related lost 22 %, Advertising / Marketing lost 19 %, but medical shows increased attendances by 2 % and education shows by 5 %. The winners and losers by sector are likely to be different this time – we can all make our guesses as to how .
There will be special factors – I am convinced that Crossrail finally opening will have a big effect on ExCeL attendances .
Never make predictions , particularly about the future At the time of writing , we are far from recovering from the pandemic . Organisers are very coy with their figures – we only tend to hear about shows which are growing . But a fair guess is that we might be moving towards 80 % of 2019 ( Informa suggested 76 % recently ). It is obviously impossible to calculate where a recession fits in here .
I prefer never to make predictions , particularly about the future . This is not for every show , but we should not be surprised if by 2024 we are running at 20 % below 2019 visitor numbers and 15 % below 2019 square metres .
On a positive note to finish . We have weathered recessions and pandemics very successfully in the past , and will do the same with the next one . And the last three recessions have thrown up marvellous opportunities for new and smaller companies to grow fast . The same will happen this time . EN
June — 45