until the night he piloted the Titanic into an iceberg . Likewise , the sorts of extreme impacts we are talking about after Manchester are mass casualties during and after events .
Third , human nature makes us create explanations for the occurrence of a Black Swan after the fact , in which we try to fit it into a pattern of previous events both to make sense of a seemingly random act and to predict how and where it might happen next . I saw this repeatedly in reporters ’ questions , in which they almost uniformly linked Manchester to the Bataclan nightclub attack even though the incidents had little in common other than that both took place in Europe .
You can read much more about the specifics of black swan theory in Taleb ’ s book , but I ’ ll warn you that it takes a commitment . At one point he pokes fun at people who quote ancient philosophers they ’ ve never read , but The Black Swan is so dense that I bet it will also be more widely quoted than read .
So rather than getting hung up on the details , let ’ s apply to live events the general concept of an occurrence which is rare , has an extreme impact , and only retrospectively predictable .
THE PARADE OF HORRIBLES
from outdoor stage roof collapse .
2013 Boston Marathon , Boston , Massachusetts : 3 dead , 280 injured from two bombs left in crowd near finish line .
2013 Kiss , Santa Maria , Brazil : 231 dead , 630 injured in nightclub fire .
2015 Bataclan , Paris : 89 dead in nightclub shooting , 130 dead overall , another 368 people injured in attacks on six venues in Paris .
2016 Pulse , Orlando , Florida : 49 dead , 58 wounded in nightclub shooting ; most total shooting casualties in U . S . history .
2016 Nice , France : 86 dead , 458 injured when a truck was driven into a crowd on a road closed to vehicles following Bastille Day fireworks .
2017 Foyer outside Manchester Arena , Manchester , England : 22 dead , 116 injured in suicide bombing during concert egress .
Off the top of my head ( with help from the Internet ), here is a non-exclusive list of disasters in and around live event spaces since the worst recent Black Swan , the September 11 , 2001 terrorist attacks . As you read , consider which of these hazards the operators should have reasonably foreseen , such that they had a moral or legal duty to prevent the disaster :
2003 The Station , West Warwick , Rhode Island : 100 dead , approximately 230 injured in nightclub fire .
2004 Republica Cromagnon , Buenos Aires , Argentina : 194 dead , more than 1,400 injured in nightclub fire .
2010 Love Parade , Duisburg , Germany : 21 dead , more than 500 injured in crowd crush under an overpass during festival ingress .
2011 Indiana State Fair : 7 dead , 58 injured 52
Does reading this list make you feel like the live event industry is under attack , if not actively in crisis ? ( Does it make you a bit queasy ?) Talking heads in the media , including guys like me , mostly get asked these days about stopping shooters and bombers . But we rarely get asked whether , in
until the night he piloted the Titanic into an iceberg.
Likewise, the sorts of extreme impacts we are talking
about after Manchester are mass casualties during
and after events.
Third, human nature makes us create explanations
for the occurrence of a Black Swan after the fact, in
which we try to fit it into a pattern of previous events
both to make sense of a seemingly random act and to
predict how and where it might happen next. I saw
this repeatedly in reporters’ questions, in which they
almost uniformly linked Manchester to the Bataclan
nightclub attack even though the incidents had little
in common other than that both took place in Europe.
You can read much more about the specifics of black
swan theory in Taleb’s bo ������Ё'�e���݅ɸ��ԁѡ�Ё��)х��́�������ѵ��и�Ё��������Ё�������́�ո���)�������ݡ���սє�������Ё�����ͽ����́ѡ��eٔ���ش)�ȁɕ������ЁQ��� �����M݅���́ͼ����͔�ѡ�Ё$���Ё�Ёݥ��)��ͼ������ɔ�ݥ�����սѕ��ѡ���ɕ���)M��Ʌѡ�ȁѡ������ѥ����չ��������ѡ����х��̰���ӊe�)�����Ѽ���ٔ��ٕ��́ѡ������Ʌ��������Ё����������ȴ)ɕ����ݡ�����́Ʌɔ����́������ɕ��������а���������)ɕ�ɽ����ѥٕ���ɕ���х����)�ɽ����ё��ȁ�х���ɽ���������͔�(���́ ��ѽ��5�Ʌѡ���� ��ѽ���5��̈́�)���͕����́��������������ɕ���ɽ���ݼ)����́���Ё����ɽݐ����ȁ����͠������(���́-��̰�M��ф�5�ɥ��� Ʌ饰���ā�����(��������ɕ���������э�Ո���ɔ�(���ԁ �х������A�ɥ���䁑�����������э�Ո)͡��ѥ��������������ٕɅ�������ѡ�Ȁ���)�����������ɕ�������х��́���ͥ��ٕ�Օ́��)A�ɥ̸(���Aձ͔��=ɱ��������ɥ����䁑�������)ݽչ�����������э�Ո�͡��ѥ��쁵��ЁѼ�)х��͡��ѥ������Յ�ѥ�́���T�L�����ѽ��(���9�����Ʌ�������������������ɕ�)ݡ�������Ս��݅́�ɥٕ����Ѽ����ɽݐ�����)ɽ������͕��Ѽ�ٕ�����́�����ݥ��� ��ѥ���)�䁙�ɕݽɭ̸(���܁��ȁ���ͥ���5������ѕȁɕ���)5������ѕȰ���������ȁ�����������)��ɕ������ե���������������ɥ����������)��ɕ�̸)Q!�AI�=�!=II% 1L)=���ѡ��ѽ������䁡�����ݥѠ�������ɽ��ѡ��%�ѕɹ�Ф�)��ɔ��́�������፱�ͥٔ����Ё�����ͅ�ѕ�́��������ɽչ�)��ٔ��ٕ�Ё�����́ͥ����ѡ��ݽ��Ёɕ���Ё �����M݅��)ѡ��M��ѕ���Ȁ�İ����āѕ�ɽɥ�Ё��х��̸�́�ԁɕ���)���ͥ��ȁݡ�������ѡ�͔����ɑ́ѡ�����Ʌѽ�́͡�ձ�)��ٔ�ɕ�ͽ����䁙�ɕ͕�����Ս��ѡ�Ёѡ�䁡�������Ʌ�)�ȁ����������Ѽ��ɕٕ�Ёѡ����ͅ�ѕ��(���́Q���Mхѥ����]��Ё]��ݥ����I�����%̴)������������������ɽ�ѕ����������ɕ����)����э�Ո���ɔ�(���ЁI��Չ�����
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