European Policy Analysis Volume 2, Number 1, Spring 2016 | Page 42

Second Tier, Second Thoughts they could tie in with the second Barroso Commission’s discontentedness with the fragmented nature of the market for these products. The bulk of the latter remain to be highly specific to the member states’ regulatory environment, tax rules, and customer preferences—and thus niches for comparatively smallish providers. The Juncker Commission recently pinpointed this fact with renewed zeal (European Commission 2015a; 2015b). Moreover, in a public consultation on the Green Paper “Building a Capital Markets Union” much like the stakeholder feedback exercise analyzed here, one of the stakeholders commenting favorably was the European Stability Mechanism (European Commission 2015c, 35–36). In the name of consumer protection,5 rather high administrative costs of many 1st pillar bis,6 2nd, and 3rd pillar pension plans had plausibly been criticized for a while. With the very low or even negative real interest rates brought about by the financial repression which is meant to safe the disbalanced currency union, a crackdown on these costs moved center-stage, and it was paired by the Commission with the promise of additional profits reapable via economies of scale in a completed single market. This attack on administrative costs appears to be at odds with governments’ requirements for tax balance sheets. Austrian and German employers, for instance, who accumulate a pension pot for their workforce are still required to assume a return of 6% p.a. on these assets at a time when Berthon et al. (2013) report negative real returns over the last five years for 10 out of 12 EU member states analyzed, and even over 10 years for two of them—before taxation. The German Ministry of Finance plainly stated in February 2014 (Schäfers 2015) that it had no plans to lower this hypothetical rate of interest below 6%, arguing that long-term rates usually were much higher than the current short-term ones. (At the time of writing, German 30-year government bonds yield less than 1%.) Squeezed in between low interest rates and more demanding regulatory requirements, experts calculate that employers will have to double their reserves for occupational pensions by 2018 (Schäfers 2015). Meanwhile, Solvency II (which is the insurance sector’s equivalent to Basle II in banking, that is, the EU’s major effort in risk regulation) obliges insurers to fulfill more demanding capital requirements, and a conflict has arisen within the Commission and the European Parliament as to which providers of occupational pensions these requirements also ought to apply to under the principle of “same risk—same rules—same capital.” German Pensionskassen, for example, which at the same time pay into a quite sophisticated national insolvency insurance pool, would quite probably be priced out of the market by such a decision (Fischer 5 EIOPA’s mandate, among various other aspects, includes a leading role in consumer protection (cf. Görgen 2011). In this context, the widespread ignorance of employees about their opportunities regarding occupational pensions (cf. Lamla and Coppola 2013) is striking. 6 1st pillar bis refers to elements of state pensions in the form of mandatory capital-based (defined-contribution) plans that are privately managed. These schemes are especially prominent in Central Eastern Europe. 42