Country Risk:
Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey Q1 2014 Results:
Ukraine & CEE update
Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey points to limited regional impact of the crisis in Ukraine, in spite of
potential spill-over effects.
Contagion from Ukraine unlikely to affect wider CEE region
Disparate reactions to Russian intervention in the Crimea and civil unrest in Ukraine have seen the average
country risk score for the 25 Central and Eastern European (CEE) sovereigns in the Euromoney Country Risk
Survey remain largely unaffected in 2014.
The average score for the region has risen slightly in the year to date, to 45.75 out of 100. A higher score is
indicative of lower risk in Euromoney’s methodology.
In the case of Ukraine, economists participating in the Euromoney survey had priced in the high risk of
sovereign default months before the ousting of president Viktor Yanukovych. Ukraine’s economic woes have
seen it rated in the lowest tier of the ECR rankings, tier five – among the world’s riskiest sovereigns – since
Q4 2012.
The region’s score had fallen (by 0.6) in 2013 as the eurozone drag and the tapering of US liquidity imparted
a chill wind across the region, pinching growth assumptions and complicating fiscal dynamics sufficiently to
prompt risk aversion. However, other factors were also to blame.
Select
CEE
sovereigns
risk
scores
end-‐Feb
(out
of
100)
Global
ranking
in
brackets
2
!er
three
!er
four
Bel
(145)
Mol
(140)
Mon
(127)
Ukr
(125)
Ser
(90)
Hun
(70)
Rom
(69)
Cro
(68)
Rus
(52)
Lat
(47)
Slv
(44)
Lit
(39)
Pol
(32)
Slk
(27)
Est
(26)
!er
five
Cze
(25)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source:
Euromoney
Country
Risk
!er
two
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