Euromoney Country Risk Survey Results Q1 2014 | Page 6

Country Risk:

Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey Q1 2014 Results:
Ukraine & CEE update

Synchronized improvement in G10 risk profile
Beyond the eurozone, and for the first time in more than four years, all of the G10 countries saw a synchronised improvement
in their risk scores during Q1, with Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands leading the way.
Making headway, too, were the US in 16th place, rising 0.6 to 75.4, and Japan, up 0.8 to 67.9. The UK, with its strengthening
economy, similarly climbed 0.5 to 72.0.
With the relative rankings broadly unchanged, Switzerland remains the safest G10 nation – second only to Norway globally –
and Italy the worst, but four places better off compared with December.
Ebrahim Rahbari, ECR expert and economist at Citi, views the main risks to the G10 as “external, idiosyncratic or long-term”,
noting that neither a leading EM or a commodity price shock, nor debt deflation or heightened political risk in Europe, can be
ruled out.
However, with ample spare capacity, monetary policy support and plenty of room for growth to catch-up, Rahbari sees “a
robust recovery in the industrial countries”.
He says: “The reasons for this are very easy to spot as they are the same ones that held us back before, with fiscal tightening
fading and private deleveraging pressures now less acute.”

G10
 risk
 scores
 Q1
 2014
 (out
 of
 100)

 Score
 shi6
 since
 December
 shown,
 with
 global
 ranking
 in
 brackets

Source:
 Euromoney
 Country
 Risk

100

+0.4

+0.8

+1.0

+0.2

+0.2

80

+0.6

+1.0

+0.5

+0.2

+0.8

60

+1.3

40

6

Ita
 (49)

Jap
 (26)

Fra
 (22)

UK
 (20)

Bel
 (19)

US
 (16)

Ger
 (10)

Can
 (9)

Net
 (8)

Swe
 (6)

0

Swi
 (2)

20

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