Euromoney Country Risk Survey Results Q1 2014 | Page 2
Country Risk:
Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey Q1 2014 Results:
Ukraine & CEE update
The latest quarterly results from the ECR survey indicate that a majority of the world’s sovereign nations became riskier
in Q1 2014.
Rising risk levels have continued among large emerging markets (EMs) – such as India, Indonesia, South Africa and
Turkey – where investors worried about fiscal and/or external balances have been withdrawing capital in light of the
tapering of the US Federal Reserve’s bond-purchase programme.
Russia and Ukraine, the two largest fallers in the survey during Q1, have seen their risk-scores plummet in the wake of
the financial implications of the crisis becoming more apparent, which is now dragging in other countries in the region
with close ties to Russia, notably Belarus and the Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Bulgaria and Croatia have seen sharp falls in risk scores; Argentina and Venezuela, plagued by their political and
economic problems, continue to suffer; while Thailand’s political crisis has also damaged its risk profile even further.
It is one of several sovereigns across Asia, including the entire Indian sub-continent, to succumb to increased risk in Q1.
On the other hand, experts have ignored rising border tensions on the Korean peninsula to reward the strengthening
economic situation in South Korea with a higher score, and some other EMs with stronger fundamentals, such as Mexico
and Uruguay, continue to rise through the rankings.
Elsewhere, the entire G10, from the US and Canada, to large sections of western Europe, have also seen their
country-risk scores bounce, with faith notably returning to Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, as bailout programmes
unwind and economic conditions gradually improve.
In total, 113 of the 186 countries surveyed saw their risk scores decline during Q1 2014, with three unchanged and 70
registering some improvement.
Global
Risk
Perceptions
Q1
2014
G-‐10
Eurozone
Latin
America
North
America
Caribbean
European
Union
Sub-‐Saharan
Africa
MENA
MINTs 2
Asia
(ex
CIS)
CEE
(ex
CIS)
Australasia
Brics 1
CIS
-‐-‐-‐
points
difference
in
ECR
scores
(out
of
100)
-‐-‐-‐
since
Q4
2013
since
Q1
2013
since
2010
0.6
-‐0.1
-‐7.5
0.6
0.0
-‐10.8
0.5
-‐0.6
2.2
0.4
-‐0.2
-‐5.6
0.4
-‐1.5
-‐3.2
0.3
-‐0.1
-‐8.7
-‐0.1
-‐0.2
1.1
-‐0.1
0.2
-‐5.8
-‐0.2
-‐0.6
3.3
-‐0.4
-‐0.3
-‐2.8
-‐0.4
-‐0.5
-‐5.4
-‐0.7
-‐1.1
-‐12.4
-‐0.8
-‐1.2
-‐3.7
-‐1.2
0.6
-‐5.8
Note:
minus
sign
indicates
increased
risk
1
Brazil,
Russia,
India,
China,
South
Africa
Source:
Euromoney
Country
Risk
2
2
Mexico,
Indonesia,
Nigeria,
Turkey
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