Euromoney Country Risk Euromoney Country Risk Survey

Country Risk: In search of the next investment-grade sovereign Euromoney Country Risk Survey results FY2013: Eurozone woes and tapering fears stalk global economy Global risk continued to rise in 2013, according to the latest results of Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey. Gloomy analysts remain cautious on the eurozone and the potential impact of the withdrawal of US monetary stimulus on capital flows to emerging market economies. No fewer than 98 of the 186 sovereigns rated in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey endured declining country risk scores (that is, increased risk) in 2013, with 87 becoming safer and only one unchanged. Triple-A rated Norway ended the year as it had begun, leading the global rankings – one of 15 top-rated sovereigns lying within the first of ECR’s five tier categories. While many countries became safer as the effects of the global financial crisis continued to fade, others still grappling with excessive debt burdens or affected by political instability, civil strife or military conflict saw their ECR scores continue to slide. The G10, the Brics and a vast array of European sovereigns succumbed to increased risk last year. However, the picture was more balanced acros s Mena and Latin America, and in sub-Saharan Africa, the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Caribbean regions ECR scores improved. Global Risk Perceptions Q4 2013 -‐-‐-‐ points difference in ECR scores (out of 100) -‐-‐-‐ During 2013 since Q3 2013 since 2010 -‐1.1 -‐0.9 -‐0.8 -‐0.7 -‐0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.5 2.4 -‐0.4 -‐0.4 -‐0.2 -‐0.4 -‐0.5 -‐0.7 0.7 0.0 -‐0.3 0.1 1.7 1.7 0.5 -‐0.1 -‐11.4 -‐9.0 -‐5.0 -‐2.9 -‐8.1 -‐6.0 -‐5.7 1.8 -‐2.4 1.2 -‐4.5 -‐4.5 -‐3.5 -‐11.7 Eurozone European Union CEE (ex CIS) Brics 1 G-‐10 North America Mena Latin America Asia (ex CIS) Sub-‐Saharan Africa Mints 2 CIS Caribbean Australasia Note: minus sign indicates increased risk 1 Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa Source: Euromoney Country Risk 4 2 Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey View Print Exit

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