Brian Taylor ’ s analysis , internal divisions within the army lessen the possibility of coups because it weakens the overall cohesion and strength of the military 15 .
For instance , if subordinates do not approve the decisions of the executive , they are less likely to fully support the operations of the executives in terms of implementing their decisions . This analysis creates a possibility for civilian groups to purposefully exacerbate any possible divisions that may exist within the military . Taylor ’ s analysis goes hand in hand with Eric Nordlinger ’ s penetration model 16 . According to this model , the weaknesses of the army and the divisions within the military allow strong civilian groups to seize control of the military relying on extensive use of influence , control , and punishment . The Syrian army , being one of the most influential and vital institutions for the stability and sustainability of the Syrian state , was still heavily dependent on the Alawites . This was due to their dominance in terms of numbers within the army . According to Pipes , Alawites constituted up to 70 percent of officers as of 1955 17 . As a minority , the military was one of the few professional arenas , perhaps the only one , where they were able to penetrate effectively .
Nevertheless , reasons and motives behind military interventions or coup d ’ états vary from one instance to another . To understand what some of the factors are that increase the possibility of performing coup d ’ états , Odner tests seven hypotheses in his analysis and explores the possibility of whether economic development , politically developed institutions , the centrality of military institutions , less politically developed institutions but high social mobilization , heterogeneous structures , and out-dependent economies increase the chances of coup d ’ états ( 2010 ). This research shows that socio-economic development and political institutionalization have the most critical impact in coup incidents 18 . Projecting this research to the case of Syria , it will be evident that during the first years of its independence , Syria could be classified as neither a socially nor economically developed state . In addition to it , political institutionalization was still an ongoing process that had been challenged by constant instability within Syria . Perhaps , these two variables are of utmost importance in understanding why
15
Taylor Brian D ., Politics and the Russian Army , 2003 .
16
Fitch John Samuel and Eric A . Nordlinger , Soldiers in Politics : Military Coups and Governments , Political Science Quarterly 93 , no . 1 ( 1978 ), 168 .
17
Pipes Daniel , Greater Syria : the History of an Ambition , ( New York : Oxford University Press , 1992 ).
18
Ödner Murat , What Accounts for Military Interventions in Politics : A Cross-National Comparison , ( 102nd ed .). 2010 .
11