Estate Living Magazine Retirement Living - Issue 40 April 2019 | Page 11

P R O P E R T Y
&
I N V E S T M E N T
as one of the greatest achievements of the 20th century. Recent
evidence from Swedish death records showing that the human
life span (the record age reached by some individuals) has
been increasing for at least the past 130 years suggests that we
are not yet approaching our longevity potential.
One of the most compelling arguments that human longevity
will continue to increase is based on an extrapolation model
published recently in Science by James Vaupel, founding
director of the Max Planck Institute for Demography in
Germany. Vaupel identified the country with the highest life
expectancy for each of the past 160 years and showed that
life expectancy increased linearly by 2.5 years per decade
beginning in 1840, with a life expectancy of 45 years in Sweden,
through 2000, with a life expectancy of 85 years in Japan.
This ‘best practice’ model thus forecasts a life expectancy of
100 years in at least one developed country in the world by the
end of the century; in other words, a centenarian life span in the
future could well become the norm rather than the exception.
So what’s the magic elixir?
One of the challenges in forecasting mortality patterns is that
virtually nothing is known about why some individuals die
in middle age, and others live to extreme ages. Indeed, the
lifestyle recommendations that follow from biomedical and
social studies are unremarkable: Don’t smoke, use alcohol in
moderation, stay socially connected, exercise, shed excess
weight and minimise risk of accidents. Simply put, there is
not a single secret to long life, and there is certainly no crystal
ball for predicting scientific breakthroughs that can delay
ageing and prolong life. But it’s almost certain that biomedical
breakthroughs such as improved medications, immunisation,
molecular medicine, gene therapy, pharmacogenomics, organ
replacement and repair and – surprisingly – the very act of
living longer will increase life span.
As Carey points out, ‘increases in longevity are already having,
and will continue to have, several important impacts on society.’
Some individuals will live to new extreme or record ages.
Although the record-holders themselves have virtually no
direct effect on society, they are important harbingers of the
future and a positive reflection of the extreme manifestations of
improved health. Just as the first appearance of nonagenarians
and centenarians was probably in the 19th century, and of
supercentenarians (people who live to 110 or older) in the 20th
century, someone this century will probably break the current
record of the French woman who died in 1997 at the age of 122
years and 164 days.
Remaining healthy, fit and functional
R
And finally, life cycles will change. As life span and life
expectancy increase, people plan their lives differently and
thus change the timing, sequencing, duration and spacing of
key events, including marriage and childbearing, education,
working life and retirement. In long-lived societies the average
age of childbearing will probably increase. At the same time,
though, childbearing will be compressed into a narrower band
of the life cycle, increasingly between the ages of 30 and 40
years, as women delay having children but face reduced
fertility as they age. However, that upper childbearing age
might increase if the reproductive technologies that enable
women to conceive, gestate and give birth to children at older
The 60- and 70-year-olds of today have the same mortality
risk as the 45- and 61-year-olds of 1900. In other words, the
frail elderly of yesterday are the more robust seniors of today
and tomorrow. It is this new and expanded group of healthy
elderly who will shape future societies through their voting,
entitlements and spending.