Estate Living Magazine Design for living - Issue 42 June 2019 | Page 27

P R O P E R T Y
&
I N V E S T M E N T
frequency and intensity of cyclone events increase? We don’t
know the answer to these questions with certainty.
To address this uncertainty, the study sought to expose
Mozambique to the full range of potential climate futures out to
2050. Some are wetter, some are drier, some involve shifts in the
timing of rainfall and others don’t. While all climate futures are
warmer, some project greater or less temperature increase. By
analysing the full distribution of climate outcomes, researchers
could obtain a distribution of associated economic outcomes.
At the most negative extreme of this distribution, the study found
that the economy of Mozambique may contract by up to 13% in
2050 compared with a fictional no-climate-change scenario –
and assuming global policy fails to constrain emissions growth.
These strong effects on GDP are principally the result of repeated
climatic shocks.
To arrive at these conclusions, the study linked together a
series of models that converted future weather patterns, mainly
temperature and precipitation, into river flow, hydropower
output, irrigation potential, flood events, crop growth and finally
into economic outcomes. This was done for more than 400
future climates that were selected to reflect the best estimate of
the distribution of future climates.
The figure below shows a distribution of the likely effects of
climate change on Mozambique’s GDP around 2050 compared
with a fictional, no climate change baseline, based on the results
of all climate scenarios. The vertical axis shows a measure of the
likelihood of the outcome. For most climate futures, climate
change is likely to reduce GDP in 2050 by between 1 and 5%.
Climate change implications for GDP in Mozambique by 2050.
Arndt and Thurlow (2015).
People living in the Beira corridor, like citizens almost
everywhere, are more likely to confront more extreme climate-
related disasters in the future such as droughts, floods, and
cyclones. As a result, it’s important to build long-term resilience
(alongside pursuing active global policies to reduce emissions
and hence limit future climate change).
L
Unfortunately, it’s not clear when or where the next disaster will
strike southern Africa. However, we can say that the odds are
changing – and not for the better, as shown by the illustration.
The figure also shows that reductions of more than 5% of GDP
by 2050 are less likely but still perfectly possible. Cyclone Idai
is a good example of a low-frequency but high-impact extreme
event. The left-hand side of the distribution (the ‘long tail’)
reflects climate futures where repeated extreme events strike
economically important zones.