Estate Living Magazine Design for living - Issue 42 June 2019 | Page 26

P R O P E R T Y
&
I N V E S T M E N T
CYCLONE
IDAI
SHOWS WHY LONG-TERM DISASTER
RESILIENCE IS SO CRUCIAL
The almost complete inundation of the city of Beira was
in the news for a while, but then it fell away in the midst
of newer, more important, or just more entertaining
news – Ethiopian Airlines crash, Christchurch mosque
shooting, South African elections, a 37-year-old
woman successfully giving birth, and David Beckham’s
conviction for talking on the phone while driving.
But we would do well to note the causes, results and
implications of Cyclone Idai because the walls around
our estates will probably not protect us from the results
of global warming. When it comes to the weather, we
are all in the same boat – rich or poor. As a species we
are slowly learning that our actions have consequences,
both for ourselves and for people far away we’ve never
met. And it works the other way, too.
Cyclone Idai struck Beira, the fourth largest city in Mozambique,
in mid-March with torrential rains and winds of more than
190km/h. It took days for the sheer size of the resulting disaster
to be understood. Dramatic pictures and video showed that
the cyclone had left behind an inland sea up to six metres
deep. Hundreds of people died in the storm and its immediate
aftermath, and millions will be affected, potentially for years to
come.
Escalation in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather
events, such as Cyclone Idai, is increasingly viewed as a
consequence of climate change. This is true globally, but
particularly for areas like southern Africa.
Climate-related disasters harm growth and development
prospects. Climate change, with its more extreme weather
events and rising seas, will both broaden and intensify these
impacts on poor communities – and entire countries. Poor
people in poor countries are most vulnerable to disasters such
as Cyclone Idai.
The research
Just over five years ago a study was conducted to evaluate the
effects of climate change on Mozambique. A key challenge
in evaluating the implications of climate change, and thus
appropriate responses, is uncertainty in what the future holds.
While there’s certainty that Mozambique (along with everywhere
else) will be warmer, we are much less certain about rainfall. Will
it rain more or less? Will the timing of rainfall change? Will rainfall
come in short bursts with long dry periods in between? Will the