Strong Second Quarter Anticipated
The Growth Rate of Enrollments Will Triple
Two thirds (67 percent) of respondents forecasted
Historically the PreK-12 school market has been
sales growth for the second quarter of 2014 relative to
driven by enrollments. When enrollments grow, the
2013. Another 26 percent forecasted flat sales. Just 7
market spends more and vice versa. Over the past 5
percent forecasted sales decreases. Overall, the average
years (fall 2008 to fall 2013) enrollments have grown
forecast for second quarter sales is +6 percent with a
by a total of 519,000 students or about 1 percent. Over
most frequent response of 0 percent.
the next 5 years (fall 2013 to fall 2018) enrollments are
Among those companies forecasting 2nd quarter
expected to grow by a total of 1,550,000 or about three
sales increases, the average forecasted increase was +11
times the rate of the past 5 years. This projection indipercent with a mode of +5 percent. For those forecastcates a dramatic improvement in market conditions.
ing sales decreases,
As enrollments
the average decrease
change, so do the
Relative to the second quarter of 2013, what are you
was -13 percent with a
number of teachers.
forecasting for the second quarter of 2014
mode of -15 percent.
The teacher pop(April 1st through June 30th)?
ulation is a signifThe Five Year
icant indicator of
Forecast
the potential sales
Up by more than 20%
11%
The success of all
opportunities for
business entities in
almost all business
Up by 16-20%
1%
the education maractive in the PreK-12
ket is dependent on
market. Over the last
critical market factors
5 years the number of
Up by 11-15%
5%
such as the number of
teachers has declined
students, the numby 156,000 (down
Up by 6-10%
18%
ber of teachers, the
4 percent) from 3.7
distribution of these
million in 2008 to 3.5
Up by 1-5%
32%
populations between
million in 2013. Over
public and private
the next 5 years the
Flat - same as last year
26%
schools, and whethnumber of teachers
er or not the overall
is expected to grow
market is growing
back to 3.7 million
Down by 1-5%
2%
or declining. Other
by 2018 (about a 6
critical factors include
percent increase).
Down by 6-10%
1%
the rate of movement
This is another strong
of the population in
indicator of market
Down by 11-15%
2%
different areas of the
growth.
country, changes in
the ethnicity of the
15 Percent More
Down by 16-20%
2%
student population,
New Teachers Will
and the projected rate
Be Hired
Down by more than 20%
of change of school
New teacher
budgets.
hires represent the
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
The National
greatest sales growth
Center for Education
opportunity for
Source: 1st Quarter 2014 Marketer Survey, School Market Research Institute, Inc.
Statistics annually
school marketers.
publishes Projections
Over the past 5 years,
of Education Statistics which projects key market data 8 new teacher hires declined from 386,000 to 370,000
years into the future. SMRI extracted the projections for (down 4 percent). Over the next 5 years they are expectthe next 5 years which is more than adequate for most
ed to increase from 370,000 to 427,000 — a whopping
long range planning and is usually the most accurate
15 percent. This is not only an indicator of market
projection period. The next 5 years look very promising growth; it is an indicator of market change. These new
for school marketers.
continued on the next page
essentials | www.edmarket.org 5