rESEARCH & ANALYSIS
rESEARCH & ANALYSIS
MERCOM FORECASTS 76 GW IN GLOBAL SOLAR INSTALLATIONS IN 2016, A 48 % YOY INCREASE OVER 2015
Mercom Capital Group, llc, a global clean energy communications and consulting firm, forecasts global solar installations to reach 76 GW in 2016. Solar installations to hit 70 GW in 2017.
“ Global solar demand will overshoot most forecasts made earlier this year due to an unprecedented level of activity in China. Record installations in China followed by a slowdown resulted in an oversupply situation, which led to a module price crash. Low module prices are helping demand recovery going into 2017.”
- Mr. Raj Prabhu, CEO of Mercom Capital Group
R ather than a slowdown as expected earlier, global solar demand outlook has improved for 2017 as steep module price declines have triggered a rebound in China in anticipation of the next round of tariff cuts. In fact, this latest rebound has stabilized module price declines somewhat. Similar demand recovery due to improved project economics is expected in other markets.
After installing 15.1 GW in 2015, China overshot its 2016 installation goal of 18.1 GW in the first half of 2016 alone with approximately 22 GW installed as developers rushed to complete projects before the country’ s June 30 tariff deadline. Demand fell after the tariff cuts, which triggered a drop in solar module prices resulting in an oversupply situation. Spot module prices have fallen approximately 30 percent YTD and about 21 percent since June. Due to unprecedented installation levels, China’ s National Energy Administration is looking at a 27 percent reduction in the country’ s solar installation target from 150 GW to 110 GW by 2020.
Mercom’ s forecast for the U. S. solar market in 2016 is approximately 13 GW. The forecast is mostly unchanged from our earlier estimates as channel checks have consistently indicated slower than expected activity after the ITC extension was announced in December 2015. A substantial number of large-scale projects have been postponed to 2017 due to the absence of an impending ITC deadline.
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EQ December 2016 www. EQMagPro. com