English - Nooteboom Giants on the Road Magazine English - Nr. 6 - 2019 | Page 36

GIANTS ON THE ROAD
FORECAST UP TO 2022
One of the aims of ‘Clean Energy for All Europeans’ is to streamline and
speed up the procedures. The EU will lay down stringent rules regarding
the reduction of CO2 emissions and cutting back the use of fossil fuels.
Up to 2017 generating electricity via wind turbines was more expensive
than generating it via conventional coal-fired generation plants. That
situation has changed, due to new, vastly improved technology. Wind
energy can now compete without a subsidy. As a result of the reduced
cost the demand for new windmills worldwide will continue to be high,
with a growth percentage of more than 10% per annum. In Europe 2017
was a record year, but for the next few years a lower growth of around
7% is expected. Offshore wind parks around the North Sea account for
most of this increase. Their capacity is going to double in the next five
years. Within the EU they are working on raising the objective for
generating clean energy up to 2030. The new objective for 2030 is 32%
clean energy. This could give the construction of windmills in Europe a
boost after 2022.
THE PROBLEMS
It’s not only the lengthy procedures that restrict the growth of the
number of windmills. Clear-cut solutions have not been found yet
either for the storage and transport of the energy generated. ‘Power-
management’ systems should improve the coordination between
CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS
At the end of 2017 a total capacity of 168.7 GW had been installed in
Europe, of which 153 GW on land and 15.7 GW offshore. This means
the wind parks generated 11.6% of the total energy consumption in the
EU. Frontrunners are Denmark (44%) and Portugal (24%). Wind energy
provides employment for more than 270,000 people in Europe. For
many European countries 2017 was a transitional year. Subsidy schemes
will be scaled down in the coming years and growth is restricted by
cumbersome and lengthy procedures for the installation of windmills.
CUMULATIVE INSTALLATIONS ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE IN THE EU
200
GW
■ 
15.8
Onshore
13
11
150
8.1
6.6
5.0
3.8
100
3.0
2.1
1.5
1.1
50
0.8
0.7
56
47
40
2005
2006
2007
73
64
2008
2009
91
82
2010
2011
111
101
2012
2013
2014
153
141
131
121
2015
2016
2017
Total: 168.7 GW
Source: WindEurope
■ 
More than 90% of all wind turbines are onshore
MARKET FORECAST 2018-2022
900
GW
%
10,6%
9,8%
800
9,7%
9,6%
9,6%
8,8%
700
12
10
8,8%
8,4%
600
8
6,3%
6
500
4
400
2
300
0,2%
100
0
0,3%
200
-2
-3,2%
-4
2017
Cumulative installed capacity
Cumulative capacity growth rate
Annual installed capacity
Annual installed capacity growth rate
539.1 GW
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
592 GW 649.5 GW 711.8 GW 774.4 GW 840.9 GW
10.6% 9.8% 9.7% 9.6% 9.6% 8.8%
52.5 GW 52.9 GW 57.5 GW 62.4 GW 62.6 GW 66.5 GW
-3.2% 0.2% 8.8% 8.4% 0.3% 6.3%
Source: GWEC
■ 
36
An artist’s impression of a ship for the transport of hydrogen gas
Offshore
Constant growth, but the percentage is declining
demand and supply. New cables (such as the Cobra cable between the
Netherlands and Denmark) will be laid for a better distribution of the
generated energy over the European electricity network. For the storage
of energy solutions are being sought within Europe and worldwide.
One example: in Austria excess energy is stored by pumping water into
a lake high in the mountains. The Obervermunt II hydroelectric power
station can feed this capacity back to the grid. In Germany there is a
pilot project in which a concrete water basin is fitted around the tower
of four wind turbines. The storage capacity: 70 MWh, enough for 4,000
electric cars to drive 100 km. The most promising development is the
production of hydrogen gas using wind energy. Hydrogen gas can be
transported by ship, but the European gas pipeline network could be
adapted too. Switching to hydrogen gas as an energy carrier is a huge
technical challenge. Furthermore, the cost which currently still is
around € 10 per kilogramme must clearly come down. Using hydrogen
gas would solve two important problems: storage and transport. Wind
energy has to be generated in places where there the wind is strong and
where the windmills cause minimum disturbance to the local residents.
It is not inconceivable that in 20 or 30 years we will be using hydrogen
gas that has been transported by sea from countries around the Pacific.
In that case the key areas for the construction of new wind turbines will
move to regions a long way from Europe where the wind is strong. Other
problems: a rapid transition to the use of electric cars requires major
investments in the European electricity network. It is almost certain that
in the future the wind and sun will be the source of our energy supply,
with the cost of solar energy coming down too. Experts have stated that
just part of the Sahara can generate enough solar power for the whole of
Europe. In parts of Europe, on a windy day, there is already a surplus of
electric energy. The challenge for the coming years is storage, transport
and adapting the networks.