EnergySafe Magazine Summer 2019, issue 56 - Page 17

esv.vic.gov.au Earlier this year, a diverse project team from across ESV undertook an ambitious and innovative initiative to help shape our response to a rapidly changing world. The five-month project resulted in our Future Energy Strategy, which provides us with an adaptive strategic roadmap to effectively address the energy safety risks of the future Victorian energy landscape. Scenario planning is based on a solid process and rigorous analysis. It allows us to collectively explore the future that ESV, the energy sector, and more broadly Victoria and Australia might be faced with. The Future Energy Strategy uses scenario planning to address developments in technology, society, politics and the economy all of which will continue to impact on ESV’s longer-term operating environment in unpredictable ways. The project team looked at the roles ESV will need to play, and the capabilities it will need to develop, to effectively address the energy safety risks of the future Victorian energy landscape. Scenario planning is about creating structure in uncertainty. Scenarios do not describe just one future, but rather a range of plausible futures that illuminate all the corners of the playing field in which we may need to operate. A good set of scenarios forces us to critically assess our conscious and unconscious biases to reduce the risk of being blindsided. Of course, we cannot predict the exact nature of the future, but scenarios are particularly useful for having an informed dialogue about it. By providing structure in uncertainty, scenarios help us understand how different planning assumptions may play out over time, and thereby support decision-makers in building robust, adaptive, long-term strategies. The best way to view scenario planning is as pre-strategy. It provides decision-makers at ESV with a powerful framework and toolkit to have a deep strategic dialogue about the organisation’s uniqueness and its role in the world. The project team also looked at how the leadership’s vision translates into adaptive, longer-term strategies that reflect ESV’s mission, mandate, and subsequent responsibilities. It provides ESV with a solid base upon which to build strategies for the future that will allow ESV to continue to protect the safety of all Victorians. The scenarios unearthed important challenges and opportunities for ESV. The challenges and opportunities were subsequently clustered into eight strategic themes. In response, the project team identified and formulated responses (strategic options) to each of these challenges and opportunities. The themes that these strategic options address are: » Government, role and organisation » Internationalisation » Decentralised energy models » Hydrogen » Electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles » Qualified practitioners » Internet of Things, data and automation » Revenue model. The project team is now translating the strategic options into concrete actions – determining timing, assigning ownership, and allocating people and resources to the strategic options that flowed from the scenarios. An Early Warning System has been developed that assists ESV in determining which scenarios are becoming more probable as time progresses, and which ones are less so. The Future Energy Strategy provides ESV with a solid base upon which to build strategies for the future that will allow ESV to continue to protect the safety of all Victorians. Stage 1, the Outcomes Report, will be launched in January 2020. 17